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Subject:  Growth projections and weather.

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Captain 97

Stanwood, Washington

Just read an article by Joel Holland which said that a good rule of thumb is that your pumpkin has reached 77% of its final OTT measurement at day 40. This really has me depressed. beacuse now it looks like I will be lucky if I reach 200 pounds. My question is how much do you think this could be adjusted due to really cool weather early on in the season. Pretty much everyone who I have talked to in this region is considerably smaller than they were at this time last year. If your early season is really bad is it possible that you could have 50% or more of the plants growth after day 40? Or is the plants biological clock already set?

8/6/2011 11:40:10 PM

pap

Rhode Island

these things grow pretty much in a pattern (or sliding scale )first you daily averages are on the upswing, then they top off at a certain daily average for a period of time (the good ones stay at peak for three to four weeks in a row before starting to drop down on the daily gains )
sounds like you just have a slow producing pumpkin. better luck next year.
pap

8/7/2011 4:36:38 AM

Pumpkin Shepherd

Georgetown, Ontario

By looking at this post from last year I would say Day 40 is more the 50% weight according to most growers who submitted the info.
http://www.bigpumpkins.com/MsgBoard/ViewThread.asp?b=3&p=330135

8/7/2011 7:17:16 AM

Pumpking

Germany

Just an example that the 40-days-77-percent rule is not meant to make you depressive: My pumpkin on the Wittmann plant had reached day 40 six days ago, and OTT said 135.5 kg (299 lb). That was 75% of its OTT forecast weight of today. If the 40-days-77-percent rule was applicable, this pumpkin would had to stop growing immediately...don´t believe that it does. This rule is made for pumpkins which enjoy perfect conditions within the first 40 days of their life. Also, a pollination between beginning and mid of July could make the rule more valid, as the sunlight period of days is getting noticeably shorter and this probably influences pumpkin growth after day 40 in a negative manner. Pumpkins of mid-June pollinations should definitely grow better (longer growth period), otherwise it wouldn´t make sense to aim at an early pollination...one would wait for the plant to be stronger and stronger and pollinate mid July for maximum growth rate within the first couple of weeks (as this should then determine the final weight). Good luck with yours to (at least) double its weight.

8/7/2011 9:06:52 AM

Pumpking

Germany

...BTW, OTT is just the measurement, but in addition to that rule of thumb, which could make a pumpkin grower depressive, there´s the light and heavy deviation! Although I haven´t tried to figure that out (would have to grow a pumpkin on the scales for that) I believe that the rapid growth of the first weeks produces a light pumpkin, which will go heavier the longer you keep it on the plant, even though OTT doesn´t predict notable weight gain at some stage.

8/7/2011 9:11:16 AM

gardnerhillbilly

Weedville,pa

In J.D.'s diary he mentions that his biggest pumpkins hit 50% of their final weight between days 42 and 45...and he has grown some monsters. He does, however, go to great lengths to provide his plants with fantastic growing conditions for the duration of the season.

8/7/2011 11:04:46 AM

Monster Grower

Redmond, Washington; U.S.A.

Your less than half way there, don't give up on growth now Captain. What you need to do is play the plants rock & Roll and Sports Radio (if your team is doing well). And trust me... THEY'll GET BIGGER.

8/8/2011 12:30:33 AM

Dandytown

Nottingham, UK

I used Hollands prediction to guestimate a 300lb pumpkin for my self based on growth per day and what I may have at 40 days (so0 much room for error I know)

On day 26, a hot and sunny day my pumpkin picjed up a gear and grew 4" cc/8"OTT a day for two days and then dropped to 2"cc and about 5-6"OTT for two days when the weather cooled. I am hoping this is due to the weather and not that the plant is slowing up. Doesnt look like a will get a big one at this rate.

8/8/2011 5:07:49 AM

Kennytheheat

Bristol R.I. USA

You gotta factor weather and also the specific genetics. Just like some genetics throw orange pumpkins and some throw ugly cantaloped pumpkins. Juust when we think we have things figured out nature throws a curve ball at us and we see things totally different. Just keep the plant healthy and maintained. Nature is smarter then you think. Try not to get caught up with percentages and the tape measure. If you do you may see great gains one day only to be disapointed at lower gains. Nobody knows untill the fruit hits the scale. Some fruits have what I like to call the bubble factor. They measure really big but are lacking the pumpkin thats inside. Use the measurments as a guideline for growth not weight. Try to remain sane through all of this.

8/8/2011 12:20:47 PM

Captain 97

Stanwood, Washington

Ha Ha Monster Grower. I live in Washington so you can guess how my sports teams are doing about now. Holding out hope for Husky football though so maybe I will get some big growth in September. :)

So Far The growth hasn't started to decline yet. The total inches gained per week has increased in each of the last 3 weeks. We have finally had decent weather for the last couple of weeks which helps. I have been getting pretty much 2 to 2.5" Circ per day. Best day was 4.25" and only had 2 others over 3" I have a very small patch size and I didn't get a soil test so I wasn't expecting a monster but I was hoping to have something worthy of taking to a weigh off.

8/8/2011 12:48:18 PM

Kevin Snyder (TEAM HAMMER)

Kevinstinindians@yahoo.com

My 1418 taped at 1450 last year, on day 40 it taped 723 or 49.86% of it's final estimated weight.

My 1223 taped 1269, on day 40 it taped 653 or 53.81%.

8/8/2011 5:05:00 PM

bambam

Citrus Heights, CA

by my math kevins pumpkins were at 79% and 80% of final ott at day 40, but math was not my best subject.
ron root

8/8/2011 7:49:05 PM

Kevin Snyder (TEAM HAMMER)

Kevinstinindians@yahoo.com

Both look to be pretty accurate, at least for my pumpkins last year, 50% on day 40 for lbs, 77% on day 40 for OTT inches.

8/8/2011 8:15:28 PM

Monster Grower

Redmond, Washington; U.S.A.

Amen to good Husky football (can't wait to watch Nick Montana) and a good September. Everyone in Western Washington knows that some years, September is our nicest month.

8/8/2011 9:07:02 PM

Pumpking

Germany

Oh well, I got confused by OTT inches and OTT-related weight. Now everything makes sense to me. Thought that days 40 would represent 77% of the final OTT weight, didn´t notice that it´s just 77% of the final OTT inches. Everything looks much better now.

8/9/2011 4:59:44 AM

Team B

Roseville, CA

I am more confused than ever! And I thought math wouldn't be important or necessary in my old age. HA!

8/10/2011 9:47:01 AM

Pumpking

Germany

Hi Team B, it took a while for me to understand the major issue of that discussion, but now (as I have understood...at least I believe to have understood) I will share my knowledge with you: On day 40 your pumpkin is likely to show 77% of the final OTT-measurement (OTT-inches). Example: Day 40 OTT = 300 inches, final OTT (let´s say on day 90 or day 100) 390 inches. That does not correspond to 77% of the final WEIGHT, as you will notice. OTT 300 is 572 lbs, whereas OTT 390 corresponds to 1240 lbs. You see, day 40 OTT measurement can be 77% of final OTT measurement, but the weight of the pumpkin on day 40 (572 lbs) is something like 46% of the final weight (1240 lbs). The latter sounds much more promising, doesn´t it?

8/10/2011 11:15:48 AM

Captain 97

Stanwood, Washington

Got more growth from day 40-45 than I did from day 35-40 still trending upward so maybe I can get more than that 70%. Up to 194 OTT and puting on about 10 pounds a day.

8/11/2011 2:01:44 AM

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