From

Location

Message

Date Posted

SF Bay Area, California

There has been 7 giant pumpkins grown to over 1,400 pounds. Every one of them has come from a different seed stock. That seems more than a random curiousity to me. The seven seeds that have produced 1,400+ are:

1354 Checkon
582 Hester
842 Eaton
1225 Jutras
1097 Beachy
1104 Hester
723 Bobier

What do they have in common? They all have a little or a lot of 935 Lloyd in their family tree and six of them have the 723/845 Bobier in there. But the curious thing to me is that no single seed stock repeats the 1,400+ offspring.

Every one of these seeds, after popping a 1,400+ has been planted heavily the following year with disappointing results.

I think once you see a 1,400 pound fruit off a seed stock it is done.... You've probably seen the furthest outlying point on the bell curve for that seed. If you want to grow a world record, you should plant any proven seed that has NOT produced a 1,400+ and has 723/845 Bobier or 935 Lloyd in it's background.

I think there is improved odds of a World Record with this strategy. To the extent that growers flock to the few top producers, the remaining seed stocks are under scrutinized and the full potential of genetic pool is untapped....

vince

1/7/2006 11:56:38 AM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

Very interesting Vince. I'm sure you'll get many opinions on this. Not from me though, I'm speechles at this point.

1/7/2006 12:07:40 PM

Indiana

But then again maybe the bell curve goes out to 1500+ for one or more of those seeds. The 1354 Checkon hasnt been planted nearly as much as the 723 Bobier. Yet.

1/7/2006 1:36:35 PM

Cincinnati,OH

I'm surprised the 829 Welty 03(845 Bobier x 1337 Houghton)hasent been planted more.
The 916 Golat 04 (695 Handy 01 x 805 Pukos 00)has gone over 1100 once.

1/7/2006 1:39:03 PM

Netherlands

Interesting, but not necessarily correct as there are more factors. Take a look at one grower who keeps on growing the same seed in the same conditions.
An example is Bryan Dueck of St. Catharines, ON who has grown the 805 Pukos three times and each time produced a 1200+ (1373, 1201.4 and 1327.5), twice the Canadian champion. Although the 805 has produced 13 1000+ pumpkins, only Dueck has ever reached 1300+ with it and the only other grower to get to 1200 was Holland in 2004.
So if other growers are not making it, but one is, it is not the seed but the growers and/or conditions.
The chances are pretty high that Dueck can grow another 1300+ from the 805 Pukos. If I was him, I would grow that seed again instead of let's say the 1068 Wallace, etc.

1/7/2006 1:52:32 PM

Long Island,New York

I think thats an artificial bell curve brought on by extinction of a seed due to so many being grown and alot can be said for the "less successful growers" getting hands on the seed. Its fun to watch a 1999 seed thats down to its very last few seeds continue to increase in size....its also fun to watch a grower of that seed increase his wieghts with that seed each time he grows it. It seems to me in such circumstances the "knowledge curve" of a seed is slower than the "extinction" of the seed. Kinda like running out of gas when the car's just getting warmed up. I also subscribe to the view that a 1367.5 is not any better than a 1344 in realistic terms. That said, perhaps a 1407 isn't better than a 1367.5? It comes down to where you draw the line. (Good thing Andy didn't draw the line at 1367.5). I think alot of what we see is cultural...when you see the same seeds grown by the same growers getting bigger its not the individual seed all the time. Ferts.methods etc...just wait til Agro-L comes out with 2x a day foliar feeding...save your 723 for that.
Don't get me started on selection making the seeds better...lol...grow one seed from a fruit and then grow that seed bigger is not selection....its better growing...LOL

1/7/2006 1:53:05 PM

Netherlands

By the way, the 805 Pukos has the ingredients you mentioned. It is a 1092 Burke 98 (935 Lloyd 97 x self) x 723 Bobier 99 (935 Lloyd 97 x 865 Mettler 98).

1/7/2006 1:57:27 PM

SF Bay Area, California

Grower proficiency is one of the many variables that affect the weight of a fruit - and one of the reasons the observed weights from a particular seed will follow a bell curve. If every grower was Bryan's caliber, the entire bell curve would move up a few notches. Bryan is a great grower - just imagine what he will do if he lucks out and plants a real silver bullet seed. That one-in-500 outlying, oddball, mutant, anomoly. Then we'll see some real fireworks.

Keep in mind the 723 Bobier was almost completely planted out before it popped it's big one. The 1354 was thinly planted when it popped it's big one. Will the bell curves for these two seeds mirror each other when they are both planted out?? I think there's a good chance they will.

vince

1/7/2006 2:09:54 PM

Netherlands

Vince, I am totally with you when you say there are a lot of other seeds out there that would do equally well if grown by a lot of good growers.
There is also no getting around the fact that we have been limiting our lineage to a few seeds from the 90s. I have about 50 different seeds in my little collection and almost all of them go back to the 723 Bobier, 845 Bobier, 898 Knauss, 801.5 Stelts and 935 Lloyd.
Remember that famous seeds like the 1016 Daletas, 842 Eaton, 846 Calai, 735 Pukos, 805 Pukos, 1097.5 Beachy and 1068 Wallace, etc, etc, all go back to these ancestors.

1/7/2006 2:23:06 PM

Eugene,OR

Wow, I don't believe it. This is actually an interesting post!

1/7/2006 2:41:49 PM

Western NY

as the grower of the smallest 1400 so far (in more ways than one) here's a few thoughts:

if the 723 seed that Larry grew the 1354 with was saved until 2005 to plant, the 1354 would have been over 1400. I can almost guarentee that. the 1354 was one of the 5 or so silver bullets out of that 723. which is part of the reason [i believe] that the 1354 is a great seed. it's a trend that i think is showing up more, and will continue to do so.

so, i belive that there is likely another 1400+ left in some of those seeds. the problem is matching up those seeds to the conditions where they will shine.

picking up on G's point..... it's not a matter of me "believing" that a 723 could break 1367. I believed it could break 1000, and gave it my best shot. part plant care and part luck of the draw between that particular seed and the weather.

1/7/2006 2:42:54 PM

Indiana

ok what is anaid_tecuod or is that a backwards spelling??

1/7/2006 2:55:57 PM

Western NY

i do believe on a bell curve, or at least something of that sort. i don't think it's a perfectly normal distribution, though.

as long as we're on the subject, i'd love to hear from someone who grows a lot of big max or something like that. i wonder if they see a bell curve on size or if they are distributed differently.

1/7/2006 3:05:28 PM

SF Bay Area, California

moondog - it depends on whether you are looking in the mirror or looking over your shoulder....

1/7/2006 3:46:09 PM

SF Bay Area, California

I agree with you andy on two points... I don't think it is a perfectly normal distribution. Each year, improved grower techniques throughout the entire grower community probably moves the midpoint of the curve up a few pounds making the curve biased toward the high end. A normal distribution probably still is a pretty good approximation.

This still tells me that there are only one or two seeds per pumpkin that have the potential to go to the far end of the curve. If these end up in the hands of an inexperienced grower, they may fall well short of their true potential making the entire seed line look deficient.

We are only looking at a few individuals of a larger population and projecting the potential of a line from the few that have been grown out. The 846 Calai and the 1097 Beachy road to fame in this manner. The first year out the 846 Calai popped a 1100+ which at the time was near the world record and the next year many top growers planted it. It never made it to 1200 even with more experienced growers and improved growing techniques over the years.

The 1097 Beachy popped two just under 1200 the first year out and was widely planted the next year when the 1432 was grown. Guess what... those three remain in the top five offspring of this seed line.

I'm still left with a strong suspicion that if you have a seed that has good blood lines and has shown some promise it may have more potential than a seed line that has already popped it's silver bullets...

vince

1/7/2006 4:59:57 PM

Ctpumpkin@optonline.net

Ahhhh....Vince hits pay dirt. Put the right seed in the wrong hands & the seed is doomed! Truer words were never spoken.

1/7/2006 7:07:16 PM

Norton, MA

A better way to look at it, I think, is to look at the best from each year, the WR. In history books the average life expectancy is always listed, but really a better way would be to list the oldest person of that time. This would show the best medical tech., healthy lifestyle, and all the other most ideal stuff available at that time, no matter if the other 99.999% of people lived with no care, and therefore only half as long. This can be applied to pumpkins: the past 3 WR's were all grown from the growers own seeds, to me, that's something to watch. AleX Noel.

1/7/2006 8:16:38 PM

Syracuse, NY

i thought it was "diana doucet" in reverse and i dunno anything about it, a couple of weeks ago---the comment about in the mirror or over the shoulder got me thinkin' some VERY cool lyrics to a potential song...
do you see your-self or is it
some-one else...well, sounded better a minute ago...lol---eric

1/7/2006 11:18:29 PM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

Vince,
I'm not convinced that there are only one or two silver bullet seeds from a pumpkin. More silver bullets could have been grown, but under poor conditions, or by less experienced growers. They may have reached unspectacular weights, due to these factors.
I'm wondering if the bell curve analogy of weight, can be applied to color and wall thickness as well? I suspect so. Some great color seeds, sometimes don't live up to the color expectations.
It seems that certain seeds produce large pumpkins more consistantly, such as the 846 Calai, 723 Bobier, 845 Bobier; and more recently the 1068 Wallace and 1370 Rose. I'm wondering if these are just better seed lines, with a less dramatic bell curve, or if it's due to a lot of good growers growing them?
The 783 Delatas appears to be one where the luck of the seed draw comes into play.

1/7/2006 11:37:18 PM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

By the way, I thought anaid_tecoud was the scientific name of some insect, maybe a type of spider. But I think Eric probably has the correct answer.

1/8/2006 12:02:03 AM

Pocatello (cliffwarren@yahoo.com)

Here's my take...

Every seed stock has a bell curve.

We don't know what any stocks bell curve looks like, what the
range from high to low is, because almost all of them are
grown by different growers in different conditions. If I
happened to get a "magic bullet" by the luck of the draw, we'd
never know it because my Idaho climate and my own incomptetence
would probably limit me to, what 800? (If that...)

I wish we could know more about the distributions of
seeds in a stock. But an experiment like that is nearly
impossible.

Here's a question: Is it 80% grower and 20% seed? Or 90%
grower and 10% seed? Or....?

In the meantime its fun to seek after that next hot seed.

Know what the next hot seed is? Find out what Checkon, Eaton, etc. are planting.

1/8/2006 12:05:41 AM

Pocatello (cliffwarren@yahoo.com)

You have to have been doing this for about 5 years or more
to know what anaid_tecoud is.

1/8/2006 12:07:44 AM

Eugene,OR

I think that a grower's skill is worth 200-300 pounds (when you are in the 1000 pound range) and is the difference between a 900 pounder and a 1200 pounder. I think the way to find a great seed stock is to eleminate all of the people who routinely grow 1000+ pounders, and only consider the seeds that have been grown 1000+ by people who are not heavy hitters.

1/8/2006 12:16:19 AM

Sioux Falls, SD garyboer@dakotalink.com

. . so don't grow seeds that have grown 1400's?

I still think there's more chance of a silver bullet
from a pumkin that already produced one.
Granted its still thin odds. . .

Stay at home and never go to sea
and you'll be the captain of the queens navy?

1/8/2006 12:18:57 AM

Pocatello (cliffwarren@yahoo.com)

What's interesting about this is that it is a mathematically
solvable problem, if you have all the right data. One "could"
figure out where every 723 every went and plot all that data,
and find out a "confidence" of where the next one might go...

But that's way too cumbersome.

What it boils down it is, at what point does an older seed
stock become "less interesting" than some new "hotter" one,
or in fact a really good looking cross with an interesting
lineage.

By the way, if bell curves are real, (I think they are) then
top weight really does matter, if all else was equal (if
the seeds were grown in identical conditions. A cross of
1400 pounders ought to matter a whole lot.

1/8/2006 12:29:45 AM

Pocatello (cliffwarren@yahoo.com)

But... (sorry to be the post whore tonight) I think sometimes
we oversimplify when we think of only weight when making a
cross. I don't think there is a "weight gene". There is a
gene (or a set of genes) for wall thickness, some for color,
some for leaf size, some for agressive growth, some for strong
roots.

Last year I had two plants from different backgrounds, but
they just looked very similar. Big vines, tall strong leaves,
etc.
Another plant had long slender vines, short leaves, and
actually gave me my largest ever. Now, I have a cross between
the two similar plants, and a cross between the two
dissimilar plants. Which should I plant, the cross of two
oppostites, or a cross of two plants that had very different
backgrounds but had similar looking plant structure?

OK, I promise, no more tonight. ;-)

1/8/2006 12:35:42 AM

Jericho Vermont

I follow what Cliff is saying to the point I try to cross the few plants that I have by plant characteristics maybe even more than by pumpkin shape or size. i had 2 plants last season that were opposites in the way of leaf size and more importantly length of stem. Both plants produced the same basic shape of fruit fairly tall with good structural thick walls.

I think there are alot of reasons why some seeds just pop big ones, obviously genetics of each individual seed can vary tremendously even with a good closed pollination. I think a big part of new higher weights have alot to do with grower knowledge. My first 5 or 6 years of growing I had no idea that this site or world even exisisted. Even the most seasoned grower has a bit different approach or recipe for the coming year to push that personal best towards the world record. Some of these new trials may push someone to the top. Thats what makes this hobby so fun.

1/8/2006 9:04:17 AM

Norton, MA

I think:
A. A good seed is a seed that has a higher perecentage of super seeds in the pumpkin, and
1. within the first 10 or so seeds grown, it grows a monster so people grow it more
OR
2. it has good genes on paper so people grow it more.

What makes a seed good is that
1. it creates a big sink (fruit)
AND
2. it has a very effective source (plant).

There are many seeds that if grown by good growers to the extent of the 723 would be just as successful. THIS IS A GUESS, but I'd say that if 25-33% of the seeds of every pumpkin were grown by experienced growers then 80-90% of all the seeds (not actual seeds, but seeds from the same pumpkin (example: 10 seeds were grown until 25-33% of their stock was used up, 8-9 had grown at least 1 1000+)). AleX Noel.

1/8/2006 10:28:15 AM

Napa Valley, CA

I think its 45% seed, 45% grower and 10% luck...... the weather being a big part of the luck factor.

Hypothetically, if you were to give every seed from the 723 or 1068 to the top 10 most experienced growers in the world, using today's growing techniques, I think the WR would be over the 1600 lb. mark.

1/8/2006 2:28:20 PM

Ohio

Vineman, I agree with you 100% on your last statement! I never really thought about it like that.

1/8/2006 3:04:21 PM

SF Bay Area, California

There has been many good comments made on this thread and many that I agree with. This thread started with some musings of mine based loosely on my understanding of the normal distribution applied to a single characteristic - pumpkin weights.

A little more rigorous application of statistical tools to the problem might prove to be very enlightening. For example, once a large enough sample of seeds has been grown out for a particular seed stock the mean and standard deviation of the weights can be calculated.

Once these numbers are derived the range of probable weights for that seed stock can be calculated. Also the probability of a pumpkin over a certain weight for that seed stock can be computed...

Every pumpkin grower out there should damn well know the probability distribution curve for the 1068 Wallace or he is just shooting in the dark when he plants that seed!! What we need here is a little probability theory 101 for pumpkin pluckers if we are going to speed up the one ton quest.

I'll run the numbers on a few seeds and start a new thread to discuss the results.

vince

1/8/2006 3:36:42 PM

Eugene,OR

In reference to my post above, instead of just throwing out the heavy hitters from the stats, you should take off about 250 pounds from their pumpkins.

1/8/2006 6:28:25 PM

SF Bay Area, California

Russ, when you are trying to statistically analyze a highly variable process (such as pumpkin growing) you don't adjust some of the results (subtract weight) because of one of the process variables. (top growers grow heavier) The best approach is to include all the data from the population. Your analysis then will show a wider spread (deviation) in the process because there is more variability but will give you a better idea of what your process can achieve....

In other words, if you throw out or modify the results from the top growers - the analysis will only show you the capability of the lesser growers with that seed and understate the top potential of the seed under more ideal conditions. (grown by top growers)

By the way, I agree that a top grower can pump up the fruit weight of a particular seed by 20 to 30 percent over an average grower. So the converse of what I stated earlier about a bad grower with a top seed is also true.

Say a top grower grows a top quartile seed from an average seed stock to 1469 pounds. In the eyes of the pumpkin world, this seed stock is elevated to top status even though the seed line may only be average.....

1/8/2006 8:05:10 PM

Eugene,OR

It would kind of be like a golf handicap...level the playing field a bit. Yeah, that's the ticket. Then I might have a chance! So if you have never grow one over 1000 pounds you'd be an even par guy. For every one you've grow between 1000 and 1099 you get one point. For every one you've grown between 1100 and 1199 you get two points. For 1200-1299 you get three points. Etc. When you get three points you officially become a Level 1 handicap grower, which would be -50 lbs. At 10 points you get bumped up to a Level 2 grower and are handicapped 100 lbs. And so on, until Jack Larue and Russ Pugh are even Steven.

1/8/2006 8:27:58 PM

Napa Valley, CA

how many mulligan's do i get ?

1/8/2006 9:35:55 PM

Long Island,New York

Im handicapped alright.
What happens to the 700 and 800lbers the big guns don't bring anywhere? and the 400lbers going nowhere in august they cull...

1/8/2006 10:06:13 PM

Eugene,OR

Enough for my little handicap fantasy. My point is that I would be more excited about a seed that has been grown only once (by George Webster, or me, or someone else who hasn't previously grown a 1000 pounder) and went over 1000 pounds than a seed that has been grown only once (by Jack Larue, or Jerry Rose, or Al Eaton) and went over 1000 pounds.

1/8/2006 10:16:27 PM

Pocatello (cliffwarren@yahoo.com)

One thing's for sure, if I ever grown 1000 pounds, get that seed!!!!

1/8/2006 10:50:35 PM

SF Bay Area, California

Cliff if you ever grow to a thousand pounds - get on a diet...

I've calculated the probability distributions for a few seed stocks and the results are blowing my mind!! There is even hope for Russ with his 250 pound disadvantage - if he chooses his seeds wisely.

I also think russ's handicap idea could be useful in calculating an individual grower's probability of popping a 1,000 pounder from a particular seed stock.

I will post my results and ramblings tomorrow in a new post on pumpkin seed stock probabilities....

1/8/2006 11:43:58 PM

Long Island,New York

I will post my results and ramblings tomorrow in a new post on pumpkin seed stock probabilities....

Buy !! Mortimer--Buy !!

1/9/2006 6:52:24 AM

SF Bay Area, California

Hey G, to answer your question about smaller fruit that don't make the weigh-off's and therefore can't be included in statistical tabulations. This will definately skew the results, the average weight will be overstated but the standard deviation estimate may still be pretty good. I'll call this the cull bias.

However, the fact that growers are improving each year has the opposite bias on the probability curves and may just completely cancel out the cull bias. I still think running probability curves on different seed lines will be an enlightening exercise and the curves reasonably predictive...

vince

1/9/2006 12:28:01 PM

Pocatello (cliffwarren@yahoo.com)

For some of these growers, 1000 pounds is turning out to be a real slacker!

1/9/2006 12:52:54 PM

Buffalo, MN (Billsbigpumpkins@hotmail.com)

Good post by the way. I looked at this several months ago and noticed that we had seven 1400 + with seven different seeds, seven different growers and seven different locations.
The frequency is increasing with one in 2003, three in 2004 and three in 2005. By running an algorithm on the world records for the last 20 years we should see 1480 to 1500+ this year. Chances are that it will be a different seeds and grower, are you up to the challenge?
I put much more on the luck/weather than most, most of us are experienced and plant good genetic seeds.

1/9/2006 1:22:56 PM

Santa Rosa, CA.

If you have seen the patch Vineman has and the work he puts into it you would not call him handicaped. You would ask yourself why hasn't he grown a new CA. State Record.

1/9/2006 8:58:03 PM

Eugene,OR

Ah, but if you aren't doing the right things when you are in the patch, you might as well be at home doing laundry, cooking dinner, and playing Candy Land with the four year old.

1/9/2006 10:45:24 PM

SF Bay Area, California

Look at your soil vineman. You can do all the right things and work your tail off but if your soil is not properly balanced and popping with OM you are just pissing on your pumpkins...

1/10/2006 3:35:08 PM

Syracuse, NY

...and possibly adding JUSSSSSST the right amount
of fertilizer......ha!

1/11/2006 12:53:00 PM