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Western NY

If you plot out the yearly high weights of modern day pumpkins (1990- present), the data is pretty interesting:

If you EXCLUDE the split ones (1458, 1190, 1090, 1010) which would have made the high weight for that year, the projected heaviest pumpkin (linear best fit line) for this year will be 1494, and 1540 in 2007.

If you INCLUDE those data points, this year's top weight is projected to be 1520. The neat thing is, when you include those unofficial ones, the best-fit line actually fits better (R-squared= .9669 vs .9588). In this version, there are really only 2 points that deviate the most from that pattern. The 1140 Stelts (2000), and the 1458 Whittier (2003). The 1140 was a lower than expected weight for that year, and the 1458 was heavier than projected. I personally remember 2000 as a pretty poor growing year (weather- wise) for my area. Perhaps it boils down to a degree-day type formula, but it is an interesting trend.

also - if you didn't add in the 1469 for 2005, the line (inclusive) predicted a weight of 1474. pretty close, i'd say.

something to think about.

3/8/2006 11:11:36 AM

Kevinstinindians@yahoo.com

Sounds like we might be due for a split over 1500 and a best official under 1500.

3/8/2006 11:31:03 AM

Menomonie, WI (mail@gr8pumpkin.net)

Depends on what Mother nature deals out...pumpkin growing is sort of like a good game of cards. You can prepare, learn, and read every book. If you don't get dealt a decent hand or play the right cards you loose.

3/8/2006 11:45:48 AM

Western NY

I think at this point it's almost a coin flip chance if the big one will be over 1500, split or not. too close to call

3/8/2006 11:46:56 AM

Western NY

Shannon - true, but i think this is more of a large scale look at it. Certain regions will have a bad year on and off, which is why the biggest one has always shifted around. west, east, US, canada. There's going to be a "biggest" somewhere.

3/8/2006 11:49:33 AM

No Place Special

I think 1500 official will fall this year

3/8/2006 2:13:17 PM

J.maness@yahoo.com

I recently talked to an "old time" farmer who thinks we will have a banner growing season in NE Ohio! We've had a mild winter and the lake is not frozen. He expects an early spring and fantastic weather for growing this season (unlike to hot DRY summer of '06)! We'll see in October when the tailgates drop!

Good luck to All!

3/8/2006 2:45:53 PM

Covington, WA

It's definately an upward trend but I'm thinking not until '07. I know it's not a degree day thing because if it was we would never have a shot at the record in the Northwest because of the huge temperature swings from daytime to nighttime. It's tough to get a tomatoe to ripen around here if its any larger than a plum. Good thing I grow pumpkins. I had a dream the other night that I was growing giant pumpkins in the garden at the home I grew up in back in Akron. Maybe this is the year for NE Ohio. Or maybe Western Pennsylvania. We'll all see in October.

3/8/2006 4:17:18 PM

Ohio

This is just my opinion but I think high pumpkins weights has just about topped off. Its been at a steady pace the last three years,I think someone will get lucky and hit 1700lbs someday but I dont think we will ever see any over 2000lbs.(I been wrong before though,,maybe once?,lol)

Brooks

3/8/2006 4:18:27 PM

Syracuse, NY

i think the 2000-pound barrier will someday be broken.
the only thing limiting the size of a giant pumpkin
will then be its own physical dimensions and integrity of its own flesh. similarly, Garfield eating so much at one sitting that his swollen belly prevents his feet from touching the floor. nothing for him to do except WEIGHT! then again, the flesh of a 2000-pound fruit might be thick enough to support its own weight and
there may be NO limit to the fruit size other than the length of the season and the capability of the plant to provide the fruit with what it needs in that length of time. along the same lines, at some point we will need to grow them "indoors", and in sterile environments to prevent ANY season-ending circumstances from arising.
if ONE thing doesn't get it, another thing will! eric

3/8/2006 4:45:11 PM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

I tend to have a similar opinion to Brooks. Of course it's only an opinion.

3/8/2006 5:03:51 PM

Thornhill, Ontario, Canada

I was just rereading a bit of my copy of WCGP2 last night. Is it true that the GPC has a standing offer of $100,000 to the first person to hit 1500 lbs.?

3/8/2006 5:30:51 PM

Rhode Island

no reward that im aware of.

3/8/2006 10:42:10 PM

Nikiski, Alaska 99635

Take another look at Larry Checkons' milestone 1469. The most notable statistic here is the 441 total OTT measurement, which had this had a nominal wall in this pumpkin would have put it at 1788.8 lbs. At it's nominal weight it only has to be around 12% to go over 2000. Not that unusual. In essence, Larry has grown one that had the demensions required for 2000 lbs, just not the wall thickness. In any case, congratulations again to Larry Checkon on an amazing world record achievement.

3/8/2006 11:03:33 PM

Netherlands

2003 - 1458
2004 - 1446
2005 - 1469
2006 - 1440-1480

All things level out eventually. Take a look at sports. Skaters get quicker and quicker but only by 100th of a second instead of whole seconds as in the past. Some years the records aren't broken. If 2006 is not a perfect year for some grower, the maximum weight might "only" be 1440. The average weight increase the since 2003 has only been 5 lbs per year.

3/9/2006 2:56:15 AM

Ohio

Brad, I havnt looked it up yet but I wonder how many of them pumpkins went light to the OTT,I know the 1469 taped out to around 1700 lbs.

Brooks

3/9/2006 4:36:12 AM

Picton,ON (j.vincent@xplornet.ca)

My 5 cents worth is that we are no where close to the upper limit of these giants. There are just too many enviromential variations. There are new products and growing aids available all the time. 1500 will come and go and soon we will be looking for a much higher number. Will it be this year? Liklely! Will it be me? .....Not Likely....lol

3/9/2006 7:53:46 AM

Billerica,Massachusetts

i recall years back some where saying the same thing about the 1000 pound barrier, which ofcourse turned out not to be so much of a barrier, 1500 will surely be broken, as we are close to it now, will there ever be a barrier? who knows but there has too be a limitation as the season is only so long.
Glenn

3/9/2006 8:06:16 AM

Kevinstinindians@yahoo.com

Of the seven 1400 lbers 2 went light, 4 went heavy and one I don't know.

1469 - 17.88% Light
1458 - 3.65% Light
1446 - 19.34% Heavy, but it was odd shaped
1443 - ?
1432 - 1.73% Heavy
1420 - 0.91% Heavy
1407 - 16.59% Heavy

Last year I would've agreed with Brooks but, the 1469 changed that taping at 1788.8 lbs, but maybe it will be the largest ever grown, as far as OTT goes.

3/9/2006 8:44:29 AM

Western NY

1443 was about 100 pounds heavy.

but what i was looking at was just the heaviest fruit grown each year. it seems the trend is completely independant of how they do to the chart.

3/9/2006 9:08:02 AM

Eastern Pennsylvania

Genetically speaking, the advancement of a plant is generally limited to the influences of the surrounding environment. For instance a certain plant can only grow so tall because if it got any taller, the wind would knock it down. A plum tree can only support so much fruit before a limb snaps. The environment provides the factors that cause traits of a plant to succumb to natural selection. It is, however, our ability to manipulate- almost control- the environment of our pumpkin plants that makes an upper weight limitless (IMO). I think 1500 will fall this year. -Jim

3/9/2006 9:12:01 AM

Norton, MA

I side with pal2 and BORER here for sure. We WILL have to take some very serious action to advance the weights in the huge ways we have seen though. It seems to me that right now we are just slowing slightly because we are using and seeing most of the effect of the last huge breakthrough. We are waiting for the next one. Once a big thing is learned people shift some at a time to using it. Each year that we have it and it works, more people use it. More people doing a helpful thing means more chances of getting a bigger one. I predict that the grower who wins this year will use some type of new method which proves to be great. I'm talking majors here, pruning patterns, light, soil type. 1500 will fall this year, I believe we will be close to 1600 or even over. AleX Noel.

3/9/2006 7:53:01 PM