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SF Bay Area, California

I've been somewhat dumbfounded to see several posts suggesting that the 1068 Wallace is NOT the Top Proven Seed of all time. Every measure that I've used to look at this seed shows, without question, there is no known seed out there that even comes close to it.

I've seen various measurement yardsticks, but probably the most statistically meaningful way to look at a seed's potential is by use of a probability distribution. Last year I calculated probability distributions for the top ten proven seeds which revealed that the 1068 was the only known seed out there with a reasonable probability of popping a 1500+ fruit, approximately one chance in 50.

see: http://home.pacbell.net/diana_do/probability.htm

So far, my calculator has been pretty good with it's predictions. The more data point one has, however, increases the accuracy of this statistical tool. I would like to update my figures but here is my dilemma... Many offspring, particularly smaller ones are not listed in the AGGC database.

So if anyone knows of any 1068 offspring which are not listed in the AGGC database please list them here. I will then update my probability chart.

This is a very powerful tool. Once there are twenty or so data points, the results are very revealing....

1/3/2007 11:54:21 PM

Eugene,OR

947 Legoretta '05

1/4/2007 12:03:29 AM

Netherlands

Yes, the 1068 is likely the best seed. I'm not sure about this statement though: "the 1068 was the only known seed out there with a reasonable probability of popping a 1500+ fruit..."

I would say several seeds that have produced a 1400 plus a few other very heavy pumpkins can also produce a 1500. The 842 Eaton is an example of this.

I think new seeds like the 998 Pukos and the 1231 Pukos also have the potential. Both popped 1300-1400 fruit in their first year out.

There are also a number of relatively unknown seeds that have produced 1300 lb pumpkins that went light. Had they gone a bit heavy, they would have also come close to 1500 lbs. The 1368 Slusarek is an example of a damaged pumpkin (I believe due to lots of rain) that went 3.5% light. If it hadn't been damaged and had better growing conditions and went 3.5% heavy, there is no reason it could not have reached 1500 lbs. The mother (1082 MacKinnon) has only been grown (or at least recorded) twice and the other pumpkin was 1187 lbs.

Time will tell what these other seeds do. Personally I hope the 1082 gets much attention because it seems to produce both great size and colour.

1/4/2007 3:51:37 AM

Commack, NY

Its grown the current world record, and more than its fair share of 1200+, 1300+ etc., .....i would say that qualifies as the top PROVEN seed of all time.

However, Im confident that the reason it's attained said satus is becuase of the cooperation of all of the guys that (a) saw the potential, and (b) put forth the time and energy to grow it out, and make it happen. You had heavy hitters giving it a real legit shot. All in cooperation with each other. I dont think that had ever been done before, (i suppose an argument could be made for the 846 calai).

In the past if someone popped a big one, then others would try it, if they also popped some big ones then popularity would go up. The 1068 is essentially the same principal, however the process was sped up significantly by having this cooperative effort by big time growers.

I think that there are loads of other seeds that have the capacity to achieve the same report card as the 1068 at the same speed as the 1068. A similar approach to the RI guys would do the trick, but its not an easy thing to do.

1/4/2007 9:36:07 AM

Pocatello (cliffwarren@yahoo.com)

Vince said:>>> but here is my dilemma... Many offspring, particularly smaller ones are not listed in the AGGC database

I hate to say this, really, I do... but this is a hanging curve that I'm going to hit out of the park. For years I've been saying this situation would arise.

If the AGGC is restricted to certain people, do you think that data is going to get entered?

Does anybody want to enter the thousands of fruits that are grown by people not in the AGGC every year? I think not.

There have been a lot of attempts to recreate the kind of database that the AGGC is, but unfortunately they don't get the "critical mass" to sustain themselves, and so they drift off and are forgotten. Our only hope for a database of this kind is the AGGC. But something like this needs careful management. What are the long term goals? Do you want it to be an all encompassing database for all fruits that are 500 and above? If so, well, policies need to reflect that.

I've said enough. Crawling into my bunker now.

1/4/2007 10:12:20 AM

Netherlands

Vince said:>>> but here is my dilemma... Many offspring, particularly smaller ones are not listed in the AGGC database

Totally true. Try to find the European pumpkins and squash in there. There is not one single Dutch pumpkin of the top ten entered in the AGGC and hardly any of the Belgian. I can give you a list of over 40 European pumpkins weighing between 800 and 1100 lbs that are not in the AGGC, including those grown off of the 1068. I can also give you a list of several hundred European pumpkins (many off famous seeds) that weighed less than 800 lbs that are also not listed. If they were, you would see drastic drops in the average weight of several otherwise very good seeds.

Thanks to Mike and people like Al Eaton that have gathered the info we actually have. It still is only a fraction of what is actually being grown and doesn't even list a few of the world's heaviest (damaged) fruit.

PS. If you see us Europeans all hoarding certain seeds, then try to get them as well because they have produced records over here that never made it into AGGC. All I can say here is 998.6.

1/4/2007 11:25:21 AM

Netherlands

1048 Jones 05 - England (from 1068 Wallace)

1/4/2007 11:27:58 AM

SF Bay Area, California

Well I got two so far, I know there are others.... If you know of any more non-listed 1068 off spring please post here.

My other frustration is that there are probably at least a dozen or more seeds out there as good as or better than the 1068 but they haven't been grown enough to prove it!

I think a few listed in the Delectable Dozen may surprise all of us to the upside.

See: http://home.pacbell.net/diana_do/newproven.htm

There are also many new high potential crosses from 06 that deserve their day in the sun...

1/4/2007 4:26:22 PM

Ontario

not sure, forgot to renew membership 1208.5 papez might already be on aggc/ No doubt in my mind that 1068 is number one producer all time. Look what it has done for individual growers. I know of at least 3 growers that increased their weights by at least 150 pounds. Growing area also will bring down average, so top 10 is a better indicator of seed potential not the average of all pumpkins grown from that seed stock. Not fair to include apumpkin from the south at 800 pounds which may be a new record down there, but in a prime growing area is nothing but a porch pumpkin. Then you have to factor in the experience of the grower. A first year grower reaching 800 pounds of a certain seed stock in a prime location will also bring down average. That's why when looking at potential you should look at the top ten pumpkins it has produced. Also several other variables to look at also, weather especially a wet or hot summer when looking at big dmg pumpkins which should be included unless there is a pattern there. I had two dill rings in the 1068 last year, do I attribute that too the seed or the weather. There was alot of splits around here last year, because of the wet June we had then followed by 120 plus degrees for 4 days straight. I would say it was the weather, I would take a 1068 over a 723 any day. 723 has reached 1407 pounds once and has been plantky more widely then the 1068, I would say it has plateaued were as the 1068 has not reached its plateau yet.
drew

1/4/2007 6:34:07 PM

Cameron,ontario Team Lunatic

Hey Drew

You can join the GVGO & get limited access to the AGGC. LOL. We are currently working on getting our growers to work together on a few Ontario seeds that we hope will someday compete in the big leagues. Help from HH's like you & Brian would be welcome.

By the way, my 1068 stopped growing for 5 days in early august because of a cold front that dropped temps down to 5 degress C (@39 degrees f). It didn't grow 1" in those 5 day & I thought it was done, but it started back up again & went on to reach 1093.5#. My 842 Eaton was out pacing it at the time, but was lost to a rib split during that cold spell. It would have been nice to see what both could have done without the cold spell.

Phil

Phil

1/5/2007 6:28:38 AM

Netherlands

Drew, I'm totally with you. One thing you have to keep in mind (and you mentioned it) is the number of times a seed is grown and by whom, when measuring the top 10 average.

I personally believe the 842 Eaton is better than the 723 for example. It has been recorded less than 60 times, the 723 more than 100. It has reached a higher weight and not all of the HH have tried it. Let some more good growers (there have already been many good growers) grow the next 40 842s and see what the average weight of the top 10 does in comparison to the 723.

1/5/2007 8:12:39 AM

Long Island,New York

You need a curve for the year the seed has been grown...most recent growings will be bigger. To take a 99 seed and compare it to a 02 straight up is not right...

1/5/2007 4:18:12 PM

SF Bay Area, California

I agree... The newer seeds enjoy a grower learning curve bias that will eventually smother the older seeds and make them look less spectacular than they would have been in a real head to head comparison.

Unfortunately, for a reasonably accurate probability distribution you need 15 to 20 data points. This kind of info is only available for a small number of top seeds and only if you add up their offspring over several years. So we will always have a Joe Lewis/Muhammad Ali type controversy perhaps for some of the top seeds of all time.

Not the 1068, however, it stands head and shoulders above any other PROVEN seed out there. There may well be better seeds out there that will soon prove themselves greater but they have just broke the surface not the record books.

I do believe that some of the newer top crosses will prove themselves out as better producers for more reasons than just grower experience. If you keep combining the best genetics available, some real magic is gonna happen sooner or later...

1/5/2007 7:09:16 PM

Boulder County Colorado USA planet Earth

we say the 1068 is the best, but if go back 10 or 20 yrs I wonder what the old veterans lik Howard dill would say. I wonder what seed changed the pumpkin genetics like the 1068 is changing them now? Does anyonw want to ponder that one. Aaron aka captain cold

1/5/2007 7:48:55 PM

Rhode Island

steve connolly is presently in the process of tracing the 1,068 genetics as far back as humanly possible.
as of now steve in back in the eighties and still going.

( REMINDS ME OF THE BACK TO THE FUTURE SERIES-LOL)--- just call him steve mcfly.
steves article will be in our next sngpg newsletter

pap

1/20/2007 7:50:55 AM

Pumpkintown, SC

I have, Aaron aka captain cold. My brain is constantly hurting...

2/11/2007 6:05:02 PM