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SF Bay Area, California

This post is an update of several my posts last year on probability distributions for selected top proven seeds. These posts introduced the Pumpkin Probability Calculator. See: http://www.bigpumpkins.com/MsgBoard/ViewThread.asp?b=19&p=147257

The Pumpkin Probability Calculator was spot on in its predictions last year. It predicted that the 1068 Wallace was the only proven seed with a reasonable chance of hitting 1500+ and that the 1370 Rose was an up and comer.

I've updated the stats on the Probability Calculator with the observed offspring for last year. The 1068 Wallace now shows that it has a distinct probability of topping 1,600 - about one chance in 150, not too bad - (by the way, the odds are a little bit better if your last name is Wallace...)

The Calculator still shows one chance in 50 for a 1,500+ with the 1068. Since we have seen only one so far, it's probable that there are one or two more 1500+ in it...

It also shows that the 1370 Rose could get real close to 1500... all we need is a good grower to plant the right seed and have some decent weather.

The updated probability calculator can be found at:

http://home.pacbell.net/diana_do/probability.htm

Unfortunately, the calculator can only be used reliably with seeds that have a significant history - around 15 to 20 offspring. For lesser known seeds you have to use the gut feel process instead of the normal distribution... an equally weighty methodology.

My gut tells me to watch out for certain 1420/1446 crosses - particularly those from a fella named Pukos...

1/18/2007 12:13:47 PM

President - GPC

VInce, I'm going to find out what it would take to change my name to Wiz Wallace, Would that up my chances any in the probality calculator? I hope Paps doesnt mind having a step son from Colorado.
Dear Dad, Please send a 1068 Wallace in my bubble.......Love Your Son, Wiz Wallace..... :)

1/19/2007 2:17:12 PM

Ohio

Vince, your gonna be getting a email from me right about superbowl time, If you do your stats on the two teams just like you do pumpkins I think my chances are really good in winning alot of money!!,
BaHA HAHAHA Shas SASihshsheshhhh!!

1/20/2007 4:47:19 AM

Rhode Island

interesting post. i like that guy. lol pap

1/20/2007 7:32:04 AM

Alaska

I think the grower has to be given more weight in your calculations and probabilities chart. Some growers just seem to have a knack or sixth sense when it comes to growing the big ones. For some it's year's of practice and others it's just comes easy. Later Spudley.

2/23/2007 2:16:37 PM