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Subject:  regression toward the mean

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Farmer Ben

Hinckley MN

I've noticed that often when two big pumpkins are crossed, their progeny are smaller. It is alittle muddled because the conventional naming system lists the equivalent of the mother and paternal grandmother (rather than the polinator/father.)

12/18/2011 10:26:39 PM

Pumpking

Germany

To be honest, I cannot understand your concern and I cannot see a reasonable way out. The info of the cross refers back to the same level of generation for male and female, i.e., the weights of the pumpkins which the plants were grown off that produced the female and the male contributions to the new seed. I understand that you are worried that the name of the seed lists the weight of final female (the fruit which the seed came off) but doesn´t list the weight of a fruit grown on the pollinator plant, which would (if done) give you an idea if two heavy ones had been crossed. Problem 1: Sometimes the pollinator plant fails to set a fruit, or it is grown on a genetic patch (just for crosses, new seeds, small patch, hence small pumpkin, although the potential of the plant would have allowed for a giant on a big patch), and sometimes the pollen came from a plant of a different grower´s patch...thus, no chance for any comparison.
Problem 2: How about selfed ones? Both the female and the male contributions came from the same plant which produced the same giant. The seeds of the 1725 Harp produced many new giants, although the seeds are the cross of "two" giants, if you consider it a cross.
Problem 3: High expectations are nailed to a seed which comes from a cross of two giants. Just imagine, if we took all the seeds of (case A) crosses of plants where one produced a 1400+ and the other one produced a 1000- pumpkin and (case B) all seeds of crosses of plants which produced 1400+ pumpkins (both of them), is there really a higher percentage of X-treme big pumpkins which come from the case A seeds?

12/19/2011 5:17:34 AM

Engel's Great Pumpkins and Carvings

Menomonie, WI (mail@gr8pumpkin.net)

Give us some examples as to what you are hinting at? As the observation stated is unclear

12/19/2011 1:43:46 PM

Engel's Great Pumpkins and Carvings

Menomonie, WI (mail@gr8pumpkin.net)

Say I have a 1200 Engel 2012 Which the female was an 869 Calai pollinated with a 670 Daigle.
It would be a 1200 Engel 2012 ( 869 Calai x 670 Daigle) All genetics are listed not sure where the grandmother is coming in there

12/19/2011 1:49:15 PM

Farmer Ben

Hinckley MN

using the 1200 Engel example, you know the mother of the seed (1200 Engel), and both Grandparrents (869 calai x 670 Daigle) but you don't know what the pollinator grew. similarly, the 1605 Sweet is 1303 sweetx 1161 Rodonis, but it doesn't show that 1725 sweet was the polinator.

the regression to the mean comment was an observation that with the possible exception of 1725 Harp(and other selfed seeds?) that two pig pumpkins, say 1600lbs each, only grow a 12-1400lb pumpkin the next generation. It is the seeds from the 12-1400lbers that seem to have the potential for huge pumpkins. I look at 998 Pukos, 904 Stelts, 991 Urena as examples of 1400lb grandparents producing 900lb pumpkins whose seeds are capable of growing 1600-1800 lb pumpkins.

I was just wondering if anyone else has considered this and try to stimulate some discussion during the mid winter off season. Should a grower chase seeds from the biggest pumpkins or chase the seeds that grew the biggest pumpkins?

12/19/2011 3:25:59 PM

Engel's Great Pumpkins and Carvings

Menomonie, WI (mail@gr8pumpkin.net)

I think the weight is highly affected by the grower..which skews all data...1st year grower vs Chris Stevens 6 plants with the same seeds..who are you placing bets on...Odds will be like 50:1

12/19/2011 3:41:20 PM

Pumpking

Germany

counter-example: The 991 Urena (2005), which has the genetics of 1420 LaRue x 1446 Eaton, something like the heaviest items at that time. And now? This cross of real giant x real giant has the potential to give birth to new giants, doesn´t it?

http://www.pumpkinlink.com/seedname.asp?pumpkin=991+Urena&col=seed&progeny=Y&Submit3=View+Seed+Info

12/19/2011 3:42:51 PM

Pumpking

Germany

sorry linus, my comment addressed Ben, didn´t want to cause confusion by adding my comment right after yours.

12/19/2011 3:43:42 PM

Pumpking

Germany

Well, the 991 Urena itself wasn´t one of the heaviest (and therefore fits into your prediction), but its progeny have proven that some excellent giant genetics have been retained in order to show up in the next generation. Unfortunately, I do not know the reasons for the 991 didn´t get bigger. I agree with Linus, it also depends on the grower. Urena´s biggest in 2005 was 1200, in 2007 it was 1292, 2008 it was 1404, 2009 it was 1470, 2010 it was 1704. Would be interesting to see what he would have gotten out of the 1420 LaRue seed if he had planted that particular one in 2011.

12/19/2011 4:00:45 PM

Pumpking

Germany

...and finally, we need to consider that there are many good seeds out there from "light" pumpkins because it´s only in the last couple of years that more and more pumpkins > 1500 lbs are grown, lucky ones who have more than one on the patch, and therefore the number of seeds out of pumpkins which have a pollinator that also grew a very heavy pumpkin are quite rare. Thus, we might need to wait for another couple of years to have a representative amount of progeny off your above mentioned kind of pumpkins, and then we will see if there´s a systematic connection.

12/19/2011 4:19:03 PM

cojoe

Colorado

Ben a lot of the world records seeds havent produced like their moms(1725h being an exception).Ive been watching this phenomenon for 15 seasons.Does seem like there is a "skips a generation" with the seeds.If thats the case then the 2011 crosses with 1468 stevens and 1605 sweet in them may be the next super seeds. Thats part of the fun trying to predict what to grow.Its usually not as simple as growing a 1818b or 1807 s.

12/19/2011 4:50:55 PM

Farmer Ben

Hinckley MN

Even seeds from the same plant grown by the same grower don't turn out the same. 1385 Jutras turned into the 1725 Harp 09 and the 1315 Harp 11, both selfed. does the 1315 have the same potential as the 1725? I think there is alot of segregation of alleles and thus differences between seeds in the same fruit.

Now imagine an 1807 x 1818 cross. Like the Larue x Eaton. maybe it grows a mere 400lbs lighter, but will the seeds from that 1400lber nearly double its weight? or the 1342 Marsh (1674 Marsh x 1810 Stevens)what could it do? Someone did a 1725 x 1810 this year, too.

12/19/2011 8:09:04 PM

Don Crews

Lloydminster/AB

Hmmm. Interesting. At one time no one wanted to grow seeds from thousand lb fruit. The thinking was no thousand lb fruit ever grew a good big fruit. Eventually that was thrown out but still that's with your theory Ben. For example 898 knauss. 2 1000 lbers that never really did well on their own but look at the result of the cross! Perhaps there is something there but it'll be tough to find.

12/19/2011 8:46:44 PM

Pumpking

Germany

1544.5 Revier (1385.5 Jutras x 1161 Rodonis), the pollinator plant grew the 1579 Revier...i.e., a cross of giant x giant, but still capable of producing new giants (1512.5 Werner came off the 1544.5 Revier). Still some hope for those who grow the giant x giant seeds :-)

12/20/2011 3:19:58 AM

Pumpking

Germany

Ben, I must admit you have started a very captivating thread. This topic will cause me some sleepless nights, I suppose. For 2012 I´m planning to plug a 1176 Lombardi 11 (1421.5 Stelts x 1161 Rodonis). The pollinator plant grew the 1027 Lombardi 11. Now there´s the big question: Both the 1421 and 1161 are proven seeds for giants. Is the 1176 Lombardi a giant x giant (because of the parents, and the similar weights of the fruits, the 1176 and 1027, are speaking for environmental issues...weather, soil etc....which may have caused the pumpkins to stay a bit smaller), or is it a cross of 1400- x 1400- of the kind you pointed out above, which should have extremely more potential for giants in the next generation? Probably hard to make any predictions, and I´m really curious to see what I can get out of this seed.
Another question which tortures my head is concerned with my 924 Wittmann x 1098 Moretti cross. Both have 1385.5 Jutras x 1161 Rodonis as parents. Hence, if the 924 Wittmann and the 1098 Moretti were the "big generation" out of these proven seeds (their weigt just depending on what the grower got out of them), the next generation (my fruits on the 924 Wittmann, which was 907 lbs, and on the 1098 Moretti, which was 538.5 lbs) would be the "light generation", and the cross should then give rise to another generation of giants...if everything worked out perfectly. Now, after this thread, I´m even more curious to see what good growers could get out of my 907 seeds.

12/20/2011 4:25:31 AM

Scott M

Roblin, Manitoba

I've just gotten into big pumpkins the past 5 yrs or so, and I've kind of noticed this myself. 2 ways of looking at it - the cross of 2 big pumpkins together like the 1446 and 1420 resulting in the 998 and 991, and the crossing of 2 proven seeds together which are both known for consistently producing big ones (1385 is a good example as cross of 1068 x 998). It just makes sense that you wont see the real results till the following generation. In the case of crossing 2 monsters, I think you are just increasing the odds of growing bigger ones in the next generation after the cross is done. All seeds are differnt, and say for instance some seeds from the 1818 can produce like its mom did, but odds are most won't as the 1818 is way above the average or "mean", theres likely only a few seeds in there that are the cream of the crop so to speak, and someone may grow them but not have the weather or skills for us to see. Now cross say the 1818 and 1807, and you are increasing the number of seeds in that 1400 lb pumpkin that can pop some new level of monsters.

12/20/2011 9:37:13 AM

Farmer Ben

Hinckley MN

I wish I had access to more of the AGGC functions. It would be fun to take all growers who have grown a 1500lb fruit(a group who have shown they have the soil climate and skill to display seed potential) and then start digging into the seed genetics of what they chose to grow including the 900-1000lbers

sometimes it is easy to forget that it is not the 1818 seed that has the potential for an 1800lber but the 1404 that grew the 1818. 1818 seeds are likely to grow more "average" fruit. it is the same with 1495 Stelts and 1807 stelts. so do you a 1404 and 1495 seeds to cross them or do you plant the 1818 and 1807 seeds?

or are we better of taking a giant maker and selfing it? it seemed to work for 1725 Harp. if the 1807 or 1818 had been selfed, would their seeds immediately be able to throw more 1800 or 1900lb fruit? inbreeding depression doesn't seem to affect curcurbits, but how many generation has controlled self polination been attempted? will 1161 continuously selfed eventually stop making seeds? will 1725 continually selfed eventually make 2000lb pancakes?

12/20/2011 11:21:33 AM

Pumpking

Germany

Let´s see what the 1723 Marshall seeds will produce (1634 Werner x self). If they turn out to be nearly as efficient as the 1725 Harp seeds, the next experiment would be to combine the "refined" genetics of these two candidates (Hopefully, some 1725 Harp seeds will be left for those who intend to make such a cross).

12/20/2011 11:36:47 AM

shazzy

Joliet, IL

I like the chances of potential. Potential can be looked at in different ways. The 991 continues to prove that the individual 991 seeds have grown state record weight pumpkins in multiple states and have gotten many personal bests for multple growers. This is my eyes can be called proven seed potential.

Then there is the potential in new crosses. For example, do you grow the 991 or is there more potential in the 1704 urena or 1560 urena that may have the best of what the 991 may have in it along with the knowledge the other 50 percent of genetics came from a plant that also grew a monster.

I think the best of both worlds may be in growing the biggest pumpkins with the monster genetics from the pollinating side also with both female and male sides coming from proven seeds. The 1560 urena fits this with the heavily proven 991 genetics in the pollinator that produced 1704 crossed with the 1303 genetics that are semi proven and have great potential and produced 1560 at 13% heavy.

The 1605 was a great model of possible new cross potential that proved correct in 2011. The 1385 also fits that same mold. And with all this said,
The 1647 wallace may have more potential than the 1725 harp. It is all a crap shoot how they line up inside each individual seed....and this is the mystery that makes it so much fun.

12/20/2011 12:31:10 PM

Engel's Great Pumpkins and Carvings

Menomonie, WI (mail@gr8pumpkin.net)

OK lets throw a wrench in the study here...Take the growers that always place high in the weigh offs with fruit above say 1500lbs..Then calculate your data and compare that to the general population results you are refering to...It is the grower and climate, followed by genetics. Some of these growers could beat me with a prize winner.

12/20/2011 2:13:35 PM

Farmer Ben

Hinckley MN

If we start with the basics, good seed, good soil, and good weather (I don't belive in luck) then to some extent you can modify each of these. We choose the seeds and crosses we plant. We fertilize, ammend, and modify our soil. To a lesser extent we modify the weather our plants experience. We modify microclimates around our plants with cold frames, greenhouses, floating row cover, watering systems, raised beds, starting seeds indoors, soil heating cables, the list goes on.

1600lb fruit can be grown in the mountains of utah, 1700lb fruit can be grown in Alaska, with more shadecloth use maybe we can see bigger pumpkins in the deep south.

I think each seed has a certain genetic potential for growth. I think many current seeds have the potential for over 2000lbs and maybe even 2500lbs. It is the stress the plants experience that lower their potential. Transplant shock, cold soil or air temperature, high soil or air temperature, excessive wind, stagnant air, a little too dry, alittle too wet, it all adds up to lost performance.

but that is a discussion for a different thread ;-)

12/20/2011 3:08:51 PM

Farmer Ben

Hinckley MN

The 1605 did really well in the upper midwest, in what otherwise was down year. If you look at how it did geographically within the region it did better from West to East. if you look at the placings, Marsh in SD, Revier in west central MN, and Stevens and Hopkins in Western Wisconsin it looks like weather might have been more of difference than genetics between 4 very good growers.

the 1605 doesn't seem to follow the "skip a year" pattern

12/20/2011 3:33:17 PM

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