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Soldotna,AK

I know there are a number of growers trained in biology and genetics on the forum. I would appreciate your thoughts on this matter. The question is- what is the range of potential for an individual seed? When you look at a seed ( let us assume the 2009 Wallace ) you see that the median of all seeds grown has been about 1450 lbs, the maximum 2300 lbs plus. We know that how large the pumpkin grown from a seed is based on the grower, growing conditions, weather and potential of the seed. Each seed has a different potential having inherited somewhat different genes from each parent.
Based on the wide variation in the weights of pumpkins weighed for an individual seed I have thought that the potential has always been fairly wide. In other words if all the seeds from a pumpkin were planted and grown by a great grower like Ron Wallace I thought they might all grow to say 1600 to 2300 lbs.
But how do we square this with years like 2014 and 2016 when a single grower took 3 or 4 individual seed lines and grew the top weights in the world. This would suggest that the range of potential weights for a seed is much narrower and more influenced by the grower and growing than I thought.

11/27/2016 10:15:54 PM

Randlett, Oklahoma

I have some thoughts on this but am not trained in biology. When you grow inside, you are able to lower and stabilize many of the negative variables, and thus improving your odds of maximizing a seeds potential. It still take world class effort either way.

I think this is why many growers start 2 of the same seed and then pick the more aggressive plant to keep. I wonder if you grew 3 (assume 2009) on the same year, with same weather, fertilizer, soil, etc. how much would they vary in weight. and would the slower growing plant produce the smallest fruit?

11/27/2016 10:24:44 PM

Colorado

The famous seeds have had enough results by strong growers to partially answer your question. If you look at the range of results from the 2009 wallace and 2145 mcmullen grown by world class growers it will give you some idea of that seeds potential.You have to throw out the results from bad weather,poor climates,maybe greenhouse conditions etc.those seed stocks have enough results for a descent statistical interpretation. Genetically we dont know how many genes are involved with the traits that make up a atlantic giant fruit and modifiers to their genetic expression. Big fruit seemed to skip a generation 20 years ago, that doesnt seem to hold true anymore(recessive trait?). I'm curious what others think or have observed.

11/27/2016 11:02:01 PM

Soldotna,AK

Cojoe, then based on your reply : theoretically if all sound seeds, say 250, from the 2145 were grown by a great grower exactly the same under exactly the same conditions what range of weights would we get? I understand this is just for fun but these opinions may be interesting.

11/27/2016 11:28:52 PM

Colorado

Im guessing something like 1400 to 2300 with a bell curve distribution 1850 being the mean and top of the bell

11/28/2016 1:04:15 AM

Colorado

A good example is the connolly 1500ish on the 2145 and he had 2077 on another seed stock so.Root diseases are a big player in weights.he season before last Chris Stevens was headed for 2000 on quite a few fruit and then lost them to splits-the ones that werent growing as fast as those had root disease issues.So maybe the fruit growth is a tighter potential range than my guess but its hard to keep the root zone healthy for the whole season so many dont reach their genetic potential weight wise

11/28/2016 1:13:24 AM

Soldotna,AK

Ok let me ask it another way. If a grower grew all the seeds the same way without disease what would the range be? I am saying that Beni Meyer didn't get three seeds in the highest 10 percent with a range like 1400 to 2300 . I think the odds of that would be too great. I am saying maybe the range is really much narrower,say 1800 to 2300 for the +and - 2 std deviations. Same thing for Mathias W this year for his four 2000 pounders We need DeBacco.

11/28/2016 2:08:50 AM

Germany

It´s probably too hard to tell anything about the distribution of seed potential in general. In my opinion the distribution of potential of a seed stock should depend on the mix of potential from the previous couple of generations. Just assume you had seeds with rather narrow potential, one of them ranging from 1000 to 1400 lbs and the other ranging from 1700 to 2100 lbs. Then you cross them, and thereafter you make a sib cross. The new seed stock could contain seeds which are rich in genetics of the line with 1000-1400 lbs potential and it could also contain seeds which are rich in genetics of the 1700-2100 lbs line, and alot of stuff in between. The more the lineage is narrowed down by selection and breeding (always using the strongest), the more will (most likely) the distribution of potential become narrow again.

11/28/2016 6:43:55 AM

Germany

As to the odds of having four seeds from different lines, all of them being among the top 10%, I agree that this sounds like impossible. Therefore, a good way of aiming at a big pumpkin could be the mix of what you can learn from various growers.
Check out the diaries of growers who grow really big ones (no matter what seed they grow), it must have something to do with how they grow them. Growing the seeds they have grown could be fine, and could be expensive, too. Also, it will be hard to identify the best seed they have grown. Try to learn how they grow them, that´s the key.
Seed choice could be the more difficult issue, check out grower diaries of many many growers who have grown different seeds under similar conditions and try to find out which seed had produced a large number of personal bests, of best of the patch pumpkins of that year etc. (no matter if it was a 1300 lbs fruit...while the others weighed between 700 and 900 lbs, or if it was a 2600 lbs fruit while the others weighed between 2000 and 2200 lbs).

11/28/2016 6:53:05 AM

Lexington, Ky

Do you think Ron Wallace would grow 2,000 pounds in the deep South? Not a chance, nor any other grower for that matter. Say what you will but...location is a huge part of the equation.....

11/28/2016 11:56:10 AM

Germany

Team Wexler, I agree, and therefore my comment "Seed choice ... check out grower diaries of many many growers who have grown different seeds under similar conditions and try to find out which seed had produced a large number of personal bests, of best of the patch pumpkins of that year etc. (no matter if it was a 1300 lbs fruit...while the others weighed between 700 and 900 lbs, or if it was a 2600 lbs fruit while the others weighed between 2000 and 2200 lbs)." addressed exactly that issue. One always needs to compare pumpkins grown under similar conditions to identify the favorable seeds, whereas comparison of total weights (of pumpkins grown under different conditions) doesn´t tell so much about the seed.

11/28/2016 12:03:43 PM

Belgium

This is an interesting topic! Well I noticed it's way more important to get your plant under complete control. Of course... seeds with a better genetic background will give you a higher chance to success. 'Reading your plant' is the key. Try to counteract in best way against nutrient imbalances, pests, diseases, ... I don't have a fully automated greenhouse and I don't have the best weather near the coast of Belgium :-)

11/28/2016 12:14:05 PM

Colorado

So I'm back to my first guess which would be 1400 to 2300 with a bell curve distribution.I could be way off-theres too many variables that hurt the result(besides genetic potential) to get good data from a list of results.I suspect that mathias W. got a great seed and maxed out that plants potential in his WR because it still was 500lbs bigger than his next heaviest and 300lbs bigger that the last WR.The more I think I know the better my questions get but I'm still learning and asking WTF myself.

11/28/2016 3:51:46 PM

Soldotna,AK

Ok now you all have strayed from the question. We all know that growers and growing conditions dominate but the question is how much? Based on Mathias W and Beni M results I propose the following:

The potential weights for sound seeds from an individual pumpkin are close. In other words if you plant a sound 2145 seed it has the potential to grow from 2200-2600 lbs ( say within 15% ).

11/28/2016 4:32:12 PM

Eugene,OR

I have two brothers. We all grew up in the same house under the same conditions. Physically we are quite similar. We have many of the same physical characteristics, but we are all a little bit different. We have a very similar gene pool and had pretty much the same growing conditions. Pumpkin seeds from a controlled pollination are siblings.

11/29/2016 12:08:05 AM

Soldotna,AK

Yes Vineman that is clear. I am trying to make the point that genetic growth potential is quite the same. The variability in weights is much more dependent on the grower and growing conditions. And this contention is based on years like 2014 and 2016 where a single grower takes different seeds and grows them all over a ton. If a seeds potential was broad ( eg 1400 to 2100 lbs) no way would he get three or four top seeds at the same time. So the potential has to be narrow( eg 1900 to 2100 lbs).

11/29/2016 1:03:42 AM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

Patrick,
A more representative test would be for a grower to grow out 5 plants from seeds that came from the same pumpkin. Even then there may be variables such as differing soil composition/nutrients and sunlight exposure in the same garden plot. You'd also need to factor in differences in pollination time.
We can see quite a bit of variability in the color and shape of pumpkins grown from the same seed. Why not a similar variability in size/weight potential?

11/29/2016 1:35:16 AM

Germany

The impression of the narrow range of a seed´s potential might be biased by the limited data you actually get to see. In those cases where multiple seeds (2, 3, 4...) are started and the weaker plants (in spite of the same growing conditions) are culled in order to select the strongest plant for the competition patch, the grower already removes a section of the otherwise broader curve of the distribution of the seeds´ potential.

11/29/2016 3:23:28 AM

Germany

Hence, in addition to what Doug14 suggested, it would be necessary to have a grower grow 5 seeds from the same pumpkin without any selection prior to planting. 5 seeds started, 5 plants, 5 pumpkins.

11/29/2016 3:25:37 AM

New Richmond WI

Growing a 2100 pound pumpkin from a 1700 pound pumpkin really floored me! No hail but some pretty mighty winds a few times that year reeking havoc (so one plant may have suffered more than another). I made every effort to give all five plants growing equal, quality care. My best pumpkins always come from the planting areas with the least compact soils. The soil does differ to some degree for each planting area. Results 1484,1538,1832,2109 and 1580dmgD80est(grown from 2102,2323,2032,1781 and 1916 respectively). Care/soil is key but it seems to me genetics is the golden key, crossing bigger/thicker x bigger/thicker likely promotes bigger/thicker genetics (I am no scientist). I like what Mathias says about having a plant under complete control. I spend a great deal of time burying (controlling) vines, but can further improve upon this fussiness :)

11/29/2016 6:19:44 AM

Eugene,OR

Gary miller & Pete Glasier used to grow on the same land. Their growing methods differed & their plants looked quite different by the end of the season. I don't know if they grew the same seeds, but chances are that there was some overlap considering that Gary grey about 40 plants.

11/29/2016 12:54:06 PM

Eugene,OR

Grew, not grey.

11/29/2016 12:54:39 PM

New Berlin,NY

Also consider a grower like Mike Schmit from this year. He took a 1385.5 and yielded a 2106. That is a 52% improvement. Did he hit the Upper limit of the seeds potential? Could anyone have predicted that type of improvement in a seed?

11/29/2016 2:14:53 PM

Soldotna,AK

Ok how did Mathias get four good seeds Cojoe? If the range is 1400 to 2300 lbs and the median is 1850, what are the chances you'll get seeds which will grow > 2300, 2100, 2100 and 2000? The only way this makes statistical sense is if the range is much narrower. And as far as weeding out weak seeds or week plants, there is evidence to support this idea if you look at growers who grow their own seeds and have access to multiple seeds. As a counter, how many people growing 2009s or 2145s plant multiple seeds- yet look at the results from a single seed sown.

11/29/2016 6:53:36 PM

Joliet, IL

Each cross has its own bell curve statistically speaking that will produce the desired trait. We hope to get crosses that are not "one hit wonders". This scenario has a very tall skinny bell curve and doesnt get proven until frequency of planting for better analysis. That being said the 2145 had the highest amount of desired trait results I have ever seen in a first year seed. No data here on paper...just shooting from my memory hip. Meaning I feel that the 2145 has a wide and tall bell curve. Meaning it percentage wise has proven itself in my mind to have better odds of each individual seed having "the shit". Each cross has duds...the more dirt a cross see proves the statistical gives a better clue. Nurture vs Nature theories will always collide. Truth to both but many top genetic seeds seem to have greater potential in a long wide bell curve.

11/29/2016 8:49:46 PM

Joliet, IL

"Tall wide bell curve" was what i meant to close with. Doh! And excuse some missing words but the gist of it is there...lol

11/29/2016 8:54:40 PM

Joliet, IL

Another key input to a seeds potential has been known here for quite some time. It is the new personal best statistic. Seeds that continually prove to grow serious growers their new personal bests is the best rating scale of potential out there. Just look at the 2009. Amazing how many personal bests from all different regions and climates it produced.

11/29/2016 9:21:16 PM

Colorado

Obviously mathias is getting a High % of the potential out of the plants that he grew.He did have a 500/600 pound range in his results which is 15% variation.?He reported in the GVGO newsletter that he starts quite a few plants and then selects out the ones he likes which doesnt support the narrow range potential theory/Why cull if the plants are that close.

11/29/2016 10:50:09 PM

Soldotna,AK

Cojoe the 500/600 pound range was for four different seeds.He mey have been at the top end of all four. And as I said before you could look at the yearly results and argue that growers that have access to several seeds cull them and grow pb. At the same time this does not explain why lots of top weights are grown with a single seed.

11/30/2016 12:27:10 AM

Soldotna,AK

Shazzy I think we are saying the same thing. I would like to see your idea of the tall wide bell curve.

11/30/2016 12:28:58 AM

Deer Park WA

Inreresting thread, it our experience that you can plant any seed (WR or porch sitter) and unless the soil pH and micro / macro nutes are not optimal you will have poor results. If you grow outdoors and outside the optimal N 45.776972 latitude W 122.540766 longitude you will have shortened growing seasons. To optimize pumpkins to their full potential I completely agree you have to own all aspects of the plants life cycle. We plan on doing this by fine tuning our soil, controlling the growing climate (green houses, shade cloth, ventilation, pest disease control, ferts on and on)... Ok crap that sound like an obsession. More importantly is grower experience that is what makes champs, shure genitcs play a part but I bet 95% of all AGs today have WR potential given the condigions noted above. Point is have fun and enjoy yourselves, Gads says "Do Thy Best, Life is short"!

11/30/2016 1:27:02 AM

Joliet, IL

I agree that most seeds today can pop monsters. If you only grow 2 plants like myself now the key is to increase your odds. But the reason 95% have the ability today has been through years of selective breeding. I wonder how many other horses besides American Pharoah that the its parent horses bred. How come they all didnt win the triple crown? This example of selective breeding produced a "silver bullet" horse. Genetics lined up for the trait of speed. By continually using stats like new personal bests one cross produces helps increase your odds with seed selection. No guarantees you have a sure winner as the genetics rolling of the dice statistically will produce variables. To find a proven cross that has consistantly produced the desired trait in a higher frequency is playing the odds to your favor. And selective breeding will continue strengthen the desired traits to hope the offsprings also produce the desired trait in a higher frequency. This scenario qbove works for growing shiney orange also if this is the desired trait.

11/30/2016 10:52:06 AM

Colorado

I agree with your observations shazzy but the question is whats the range of weights a given good seedstock will throw in ideal conditions when grown in multiple trials.Answer is we dont know.Patrick asked if anybody can shed some light on this who has a genetic background or botany background to give us a educated estimation to stated question.I'm curious what nick welty or joe ailts might think,I'm just a interested grower/fan of these crazy things

11/30/2016 12:16:20 PM

New Richmond WI

Shazzy, I think you hit the nail on the head ;)

11/30/2016 8:36:35 PM

Joliet, IL

Thanks LL...Quinn is the man who seems to have an instinctive ability to sort through genetics and potential and I have learned a great deal from his input here for many years.

11/30/2016 11:23:08 PM

Corryton, TN

Did some digging and in the last 3 seasons I found 7 cases where some good and highly respected growers grew the same seed in the same season. I'm sure there are more cases. All the pumpkins produced were 1400-2300 pounds and all were from well known seeds. The difference between these sibs ranged from a high of 308.5 to a low of 3.3 pounds.

Could the range potential of a seed grown by a good/great grower be 700 pound. Possibly. Assuming all these plants were health, etc. this VERY limited data seems to indicate the range may be closer to 400 pounds.

What's really frustrating is the great growers appear to be a 1000+ pounds better than me!

12/1/2016 8:21:13 AM

Colorado

A example in a wide range in results by same grower same seed would be 2075.5 Connolly and 1129 Connolly grown on different 1961 sperry plants. Also Steves 1503.5 ,grown on the 2145 McMullen ,is 572 lbs smaller than is biggest this year on a seed stock we know can grow 2624. I just don't know why the results have that range in weights.Difference in seed potential or some other factors such as disease,rot in main vine,different soil conditions etc.

12/1/2016 2:42:10 PM

Joliet, IL

The reason there is no one definitive answer to know exactly a seeds porential is based on the fact there is no level playing field. In horse breeding there is the same track and a clock watch. Definitive specifications for scientific theory and testing results consistant. Ask a grower with room for 4 plants and they will tell you which spot is the honey hole over years of experience. So take a field of 100 AGs.. all treated with same amount of time and equal ingedients, i bet you will find after a few years some regions produce better than others. Now take the climate into account in different regions. Also disease in different regions in the same field. So many variables that scientifically no one will ever know this question scientifically of what exact range and potential weight ratios one individual seed can produce.......and I love that. It's the unknown and dreams of glory that make this hobby so fun. If we could scientically know exactly the genetic arrangements and somehow know exactly what a seed will produce would take the fun out of it. Dream Big!!!! Study trends...increase your odds. And adapt and adjust...but mostly have fun.

12/1/2016 7:29:48 PM

Torrance, Ca.

Good stuff Shazzy!!!!!!!!!!


I'm dreaming baby, I'm dreaming!!

12/1/2016 7:32:45 PM

Vermont

Has anyone developed more stable self pollinated strains from any of the best seeds? (5-7 generations) I would expect that inbred lines would produce more uniform, reliable, and predictable results. The more hybridization the less predictability. Stable lines could even be crossed for relatively uniform F1 hybrids. I guess my 'take' to the main question of this thread would be that the most inbred lines would have the most predictable results for all traits, and vice versa. Does anyone disagree or have further input?

12/1/2016 8:23:12 PM

Joliet, IL

To best get a feel for the potential of a certain cross to produce a more predictable band of successful carry over of desired traits in its progeny...look to the orange growers. Shannon or Norm or John Vincent off the top of my head could maybe share input. The color variable is way more consistant genetically then potential weight. Before the 898 Knauss the percent heavy in a pumpkin was more of a nurture theory and calcium blankets were even used to try to increase wall thickness. Eventually thicker high density flesh genes were proven out....the 1625 put a lid on that. Some have always said its a nuture thing that healthy plants lead to longer pumpkin growth..very true....but we are seeing certain seeds produce plants with a tendency to pumpkins that never want to say quit and creep on to 100 plus days and still slowly grow. The best example of this combo of of heavy and long term growth was the 1810 Stevens. So I will end this with saying that look to the orange growers and use their knowledge to help you zero in on desired traits you hope to achieve in your seed selections and future crosses.

12/1/2016 9:49:13 PM

Minnesota(dw447@fastmail.fm)

VTBC,

The 1109 Borgers 16 is the 1161 Rodonis 07 that has been selfed for 4 generations, if I'm counting correctly. It seems to be isolating the orange and nice shape characteristics.

I like the potential of crossing two relatively unrelated A.G. lines, that have been highly inbred, to maybe create some hybrid vigor, if that is possible with A.G.'s. Here's a link to an article by Joe Ailts that discusses this possibility(keep in mind it is several years old):

http://www.bigpumpkins.com/ViewArticle.asp?id=98

12/2/2016 12:30:25 AM

Central Illinois

Many growers using the same clones would show a great difference in weights I believe, even the clones grown by one grower.

12/2/2016 12:29:10 PM

Norfolk, UK

Am I correct in thinking that each lobe of a pumpkin is pollinated separately? E.g if you had a 5 lobe flower, and pollinated each lobe with a different male flower, each lobe seed cavity would have male genes from the different males used to pollinate?

My thinking here is that, in a controlled pollination but using multiple male flowers from the same parent, each lobe may or may not have been pollinated with a different male from the same plant (which have small genetic variations)

The variation in weights grown from offspring then, may be smaller if the seed was from the same segment / lobe - than from a different lobe, which has greater differences genetically.

(of course, shout if wrong about the whole lobe thing!)

12/4/2016 4:27:02 AM

Germany

SaladDoug, are you talking about using different males from the same plant? It won´t make a significant difference, because the genetic diversity in the pollen within one male already is as great as it would be possible for the whole plant. It´s just better (in my opinion, at least) to use more pollen, that should enhance the number in the group of strongest pollen which actually make the race to the ovaries first. Using less pollen would increase the odds for the weaker pollen to find a place where they could eventually contribute to the genetics of a new seed.

12/4/2016 4:35:59 AM

Colorado

One pollen grain per seed doug so you got genetic diversity for each embryo and each pollen grain going into the seed. I dont know how many genes are involved in a ag plant/pumpkin.

12/4/2016 4:54:02 PM