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Deer Park, WI

Hi Folks-

Recently read the thread about reaching genetic ceiling and it prompted me to do the yearly statistical update to determine top weight trajectory based on historical data.

I've summarized my thoughts in a blog post (with graphics) on the SCGA website. You can read it here:

https://www.stcroixgrowers.org/blogs/news/the-race-for-3000lbs-2019-edition

I'm willing to share the spreadsheet that I capture this data in, for those who would like to tinker. I'm no expert in statistics and have benefited from sharp minds like Mr. Holub to help me refine the analysis. Would love to see if there are statistics-minded individuals who can extract more relevance and/or insights out of this dataset!

Enjoy-

11/3/2019 11:02:12 AM

Netherlands

Hi Joe,

Can you send me the spreadsheet? I think it is important to look at what other giant veg was doing in each given year to see the environmental influences on those stats. For example 2014 was a truly extra ordinary year for field pumpkins world-wide, a year that has never been matched again.

giantveg @ hotmail.com

Thanks,
Brad

11/3/2019 11:15:08 AM

British Columbia, Canada

Thanks for sharing Joe.

11/3/2019 3:51:34 PM

Colorado

Interesting to see that green line slope.It doesnt appear to be leveling yet. Thanks for your time Joe.

11/3/2019 6:54:53 PM

Midway, UT

Nice job on this.

11/4/2019 6:03:57 PM

Netherlands

Here's my rant.

I did the same to squash, long gourds and field pumpkins using data from 2012-2019. I looked at the number of GPC entries, top weight, weight of the #10 and the average weight of the top 10. First of all, there is no correlation between the number of entries and any other of the statistics.

I figured out the average increase in the weight of the number one and of the top 10 average over the past 8 years. The average percentage is what we would expect as a normal increase each year. This would be a so-called neutral year. If the increase is higher than normal by 2% or more, it would a good year and a decrease by 2% or more a poor year.

11/5/2019 8:23:51 AM

Netherlands

Long gourds are the most stabile. Almost every year is what we call normal except for 2015 which was a very good LG year. It was followed by a very poor year. If you were to average those two years, they would both have been normal.

Squash are most similar to AGs. Generally when it is a good AG year, it is a good squash year and vice versa. However, the weights of the #1 are all over the place. The cause is likely the introduction of pumpkin genetics into the line by Holub and Jutras. The average weight is also all over the place but on average squash rates are increasing as much as AG rates are, but this is thanks to one or two enormous squash (with pumpkin genetics) that push the average weight up each year.

11/5/2019 8:30:38 AM

Netherlands

Field pumpkins are like AGs in that every good year is followed by a poor year. Of all the GPC classes, FPs are the most unpredictable. Like LGs they show little growth over the years, but unlike LGs this is most irregular. Weights can go up 30%+ one year and drop 25%+ another year. 2014 was a most extraordinary year, one that has yet to be matched though 2019 got closer than ever.
One of the reasons why FPs fluctuate so much, is because one of the top FP growers, John MacKinnon, didn't grow each year. The years he didn't grow, weights went down.

Since 2012 AGs have done well on even years and poorly on oneven years. Like FPs and squash, there has never been a normal year. Now there is one interesting thing I discovered. In 2014 and 2016, the last time WRs were set, the growers who grew them all weighed in 3 pumpkins that made it into the top 10 and then didn't grow the year(s) after. Remove one certain grower from any of the classes and the gains become normal. Each time there is an enormous increase in weights it is caused by a relatively unknown grower that does well one year and then more or less disappears from the scene, at least the top of the scene.
This makes is so hard to predict anything but probably helps explain the fluctuations somewhat.

11/5/2019 8:45:18 AM

Netherlands

Looking at each year individually the following things can noticed.
2013 was not a good year for any of the GPC classes studied. 2014 was the best year ever for FPs and an excellent year for squash and pumpkins, but an average year for LGS
2015 was bad for them all except for LGs which was the best year ever.
2016 was a pretty good year for all except for LGs which was the worst year ever.
2017 was the poorest year for AGs and a mixed bag for the rest while 2018 was a devastating year for squash, a poor year for FPs but okay for LGs and AGs.
2019 was the best year for FPs since 2014, a poor year for AGs and a mixed bag for squash and LGs.
Except for a general excellent year in 2014 and a general poor year in 2015, there doesn't not seem to be any correlation between the different classes.
All in all I would conclude that AG weights will still be all over the place in the future with good years and bad and that if it ever happens the 3000lb pumpkin could be 6-10 years away.

11/5/2019 8:54:48 AM

President - GPC

I would wonder if you parallel weather temps, if it would show any correlation. Weather gutted a lot of Big Fruit weights this year

11/5/2019 10:21:32 AM

Netherlands

It would seem that if there were to be a sudden increase in the top weight that it would likely be from a grower we didn't expect who had a special seed going in the perfect climatic conditions and might be doing something nobody has perfected yet. I don't see it being a grower that does very well every year with weights slowly rising.

One would expect that with growers now all over the western world that the weather conditions would average out to be normal each year. There should always be ideal weather in some part of the growing world and many northern European growers can control it a bit better in greenhouses.

11/5/2019 12:00:10 PM

Reading, Pennsylvania

thank-you Joe I am following

11/6/2019 4:11:05 AM

Rhode Island

anything that grows has determining factors. i truly believe it will be extremely difficult to break into that 3k barrier
hope ron is the one to do it though ---lol
my best to all growers in our wonderful hobby
pap wallace

11/11/2019 12:09:58 PM

Muddy Waters

Its all about the weather now folks dozens of Great growers out there several with deep pockets =many resources.3k will go down as soon as the weather allows it.The Genetics are here already to do it.Just a matter of time & who gets the weather first.Just my not so humble opinion.I hope Ron does it to !!

11/13/2019 6:10:57 AM