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South Hill, Virginia

I know there has been much discussion on what the nature of our business will be when the PVP expires. Much of the talk has been of high prices on desirable seeds that will prevent the majority of us from ever planting something "hot". The more I think about it the more I believe that perhaps the opposite will be true.

Right now the only way these hot seeds get legally exchanged for cash is through benefit auctions. Most (if not all) organizations run but one auction per year and that keeps supply way down. If there are more honorable buyers than there are hot seeds then the prices soar. It's been kind of like an unintentional price control (just like OPEC controls oil prices by adjusting production).

Selling seeds is bound to become more widespread and the supply will get closer to matching demand. I don't think supply will ever outstrip demand for a particular seed so we will see different prices for different seeds but I do think the days of the $300 seed are just about over. I'm not sure where the price will settle to but I would wager it will be significantly lower than what we are seeing these days.

Personally I am not comfortable with selling seeds (after it becomes legal or before) that were given to me with the expectation that I would grow them, but each of us will have to make that decision for him/herself. I'm not accusing anyone and I don't have any particular person in mind but I do believe that there are probably some "seed collectors" out there that have been collecting for the day that the PVP runs out.

I really would like to hear what the rest of you think about this.

11/4/2003 11:53:51 AM

Webster, NY

I've requested seeds generally because I was interested in the cross or because I thought it would do well. I've given away some good seeds to people but the thought never crossed my mind to sell them.

11/4/2003 12:49:11 PM

Utah

interesting thoughts Brent thanks for the thread. I'm not sure what will happen either.
but i think that each year there are more and more growers-yet the supply of "hot" seeds will remain about the same. thus the effective demand will be higher, and the prices of the hottest seeds will go up. with more growers out there the odds increase that a few of them will want thier certain seed at almost any price... and with the PVP ending I think more people will be willing to go about it this way.

you can see how more growers has affect the supply already. Not to long ago when you requested seeds from a heavy hitter you used to get 3 or 4 or even 5 seeds. Now chances are you'll get 1 maybe 2. to further emphasizes the point- this year if you've requested Dueck/Papez seeds you will get 1 or 2 seeds from 3 or 4 pumpkins (I not disagreeing with the way they distribute seeds- they are very generous and what else can they do ? )

what i see out of this is a tiered/network system where seeds still will be freely traded if you are in the other persons tier or network. New growers will not be able to cold send a bubble pack to a heavy hitter and get his top seeds. He will have to work his way up through friendships, joining associations and growing accomplishments. Which is a natural progress. New growers will have to settle for great and great seeds but not hot seeds.

the only way i don't see demand increasing for the hot seeds is to have more seeds becoming "hot" - which is happening some -With more growers, there are more heavy hitters and thus more heavy hitter - hopefully hot seeds to go around. but there will always be the seed that produced the world record. I see the price for those type of seeds going up.

11/4/2003 1:05:16 PM

In the shade - PDX, OR

General Supply and Demand rules will apply

I think that some growers will sell their seed.
Depends on how 'enterprising' they are, the demand for their seed and the available time & energy to put into it.

Others will still freely trade their seed - some based on the relationships already established.


Some good points by Gordon too..heavies vrs newbies

11/4/2003 1:18:13 PM

South Hill, Virginia

Gordon,

I agree that the supply of hot seeds may remain the same but I think that the supply that will be "available on the secondary market" will increase because they will be more widely sold as opposed to just sitting in someones collection.

For example, how many 846s were sold last year? Maybe one or two. There may be a true supply of 50 out there but the available supply is what drives the price. I say the available supply will increase driving the price down.

It's true that number of people in the hobby has increased but I think you could argue that the number of available hot seeds will increase at a larger rate.

Of course the definition of hot seed may have to be rewritten pretty soon. If someone got a 1000 pounder out of a seed then that was enough to make it hot but that bar is going to be moved up.

11/4/2003 1:38:59 PM

Key West, FL

Very interesting thoughts Brent, bad news for the clubs if this is the way things works out and it looks like it might.

11/4/2003 3:22:52 PM

Indiana

I think that alot of seeds out there are very capable of growing 1000+ pumpkins but no one with limited space wants to waste a year trying them. They only want a "hot" or "proven" seed, Me included. I know im not gonna pay some outragous amount for a seed. I am doing this for fun, yes it would be "fun" to win $1500 or so at a weigh off but I dont want to spend half of that to buy a seed that may not even be what someone says it is. I think it is more fun the way it is and hope it doesnt change much when the pvp runs out. Besides that how are the pumpkin org's going to make money at auctions if all of the seed is already for sale? PS. Anyone got a proven seed that they are willing to send to a second year grower Ive got some seed from my 463 to trade.

Steve

11/4/2003 3:47:39 PM

Utah

good points Brent- i can see things going that way very easily. I guess it all depends on the what the actual supply and demand ends up being.

11/4/2003 4:52:55 PM

Morris, Connecticut

I think we'll see some people dishing out cash for proven seeds but I also think we'll see more people working with unproven seeds. Who knows how many gems are out there that still need to be proven. Who knows how many we've missed out on because we've been stuck with the same old 846, 723, 845, 801.5, etc...

11/4/2003 6:01:21 PM

Southeast

Great sell seeds, loose all the respect that you want from growers and oust youreself from the community you try to aspire to. Selling seeds will be a very lonely place to be. Count me out.

11/4/2003 6:20:51 PM

Liverpool , England

Hey if nobody buys the seeds then nobody can sell em.

Alun

11/4/2003 7:54:09 PM

canal winchester ohio

You hit the nail on the head Alun.

11/4/2003 8:05:36 PM

Deer Park WA

Moondog,

In the good old days folks sent a few bucks beyond the cost of postage in hopes of enticing the grower into sending a few hot seeds. Selling? maybe, but it useually gets some extra consideration.

11/5/2003 1:10:39 AM

Ctpumpkin@optonline.net

There is one aspect of this sport that could be improved by money. If a really good heavy could be enticed to grow a great, yet unproven cross, then everyone would want that seed. It boggles the mind how many really great seeds are out there collecting dust only because the elite have never grown it.

Take the 582 Hester for instance. No one besides Bruce Whittier has ever grown this seed to 1000 lbs. So if Bruce hadn't grown it this year would anyone be giving it more than a passing thought?

And if demand for the 582 Hester isn't coming close to stripping out the supply, then how many folks are clammering to get the 613.0 Michalec 2003. It's the same cross.

Perhaps a growers association can finance a co-op in, let's say the Manchester, NH area? Call it "Hitters-4-Hire" maybe? Then encourage folks who produce good (yet unproven) crosses to pay for a "trial". I suspect the outcome would be very enlightening.

I didn't dream this up myself. I heard another grower bring this up this year & it intriques me thoroughly.

Steve

11/5/2003 6:45:27 AM

New Hampshire

I think most of us(that includes me) are to hung up on finding hot and "proven" seeds. I believe the genetics are in many of these seeds that we all ready have in our collection. This year we grew four unproven seeds and grew two 1000# pumpkins from them. The first time Bruce grew the 582 it ended up in his patch by a fluke. I started that 582 in my greenhouse by the recomndation by Bruce himself. IT was one of my weakest looking sedlins so I did'nt plant it . I was on the verge of tossing the plant when Bruce called and said he lost some plants due to frost and if I had any spare plants. He took that sorry looking plant and the rest is history. The lesson learned is start proving those unproven seeds and the hottest seeds are sitting in your seed collection collect dust.
I believe if you want to grow big ones learn more about growing pumpkins than trying to obtain hot seeds. These seeds are hot because people who grew them know how to grow pumpkins. I believe Bruce's patch can squeeze a 1000# out of most seeds. Jim Ford

11/5/2003 7:55:26 AM

Deer Park, WI

There is much wisdom to be gleaned from Jim's post above. ITs not the seed that makes the grower, its the grower (and his dirt) that makes the seed. Read the last line of Jim's post 3 maybe 4 more times, or until it sinks in. Superior genetics WILL NOT manifest their true qualities in a poorly managed patch. Whittier obviously has his crap together, and becuase of that can take a no-namer like the 582 and make it a star. So, before we all get undie-tied about seed prices and nasty sellers, how bout worrying about getting the soil into shape? Or finding a way to spend a few more hours in the patch each night? Seriously folks, you dont need a hot seed to hit it big. I gave the 501 beachy a chance based on a recommendation from Tom. I had (and still dont have) any idea what the parents are. However, I poured my heart and soul into taking care of this plant and my precious dirt. The outcome was favorable. Next year, I will do my damnedest to grow a little known Casey Neuville seed, and it will be a hot seed if i got anything to say about it. Beachy is growing a seed from a 20lb fruit that may rival anything in his patch. I will NEVER worry about paying for seeds. Neither should you.

11/5/2003 9:02:04 AM

well said. it's the whole nature vs. nurture thing that you hear about in middle school science class. ya can't plop an awesome seed into a little patch of dirt and expect it to grow a huge pumpkin with no care at all. you're wasting your time and might as well throw a no name random open pollinated cross into the ground. a "bad" seed with good care is going to grow better than a "good" seed with bad care.

on another note (i like analogies)...expecting all crosses to throw consistent fruit is like expecting all of a couples children to look the same... and expecting that same cross, or a remake, to always throw consistently with the original cross is absurd. (granted, some are more consistent than others, but that becomes complicated)

as for spending money on seeds....poor college kids like me can't afford that, and i'm sure other people don't want to have to afford that. i'd rather develop lasting friendships with pumpkin growers that will exchange seeds and advice for free, and then both parties benefit.

11/5/2003 11:17:37 AM

Long Island,New York

I think people forget that half the fun of this hobby is getting the seed you think is right for you.How much fun would it be if you didnt have to search and seek all winter? Boy...what a boring winter it would be without seed aquisition,seed negociations and seed info-seek...we'd be sitting here bored to tears after the fall patch prep.......keep the silver bullet theory alive...gotta get the perfect seed... (even though you likely have 20 in your sock drawer already.).....G

11/5/2003 4:54:39 PM

Ctpumpkin@optonline.net

G, you keep your seeds in the sock drawer? Jeez! No more seed trades with you! LOL

I agree that Bruce could grow a lousy seed well. But he'd probably still grow a great seed better. I wouldn't throw all genetic potential out the window yet.

Perhaps I didn't make my question clear enough.

Would it be considered ethical for a person to offer cold hard cash to a great grower as a fee to grow a new & promising cross? In this case the grower is "hired" to prove the seed. The seed producer thus becomes the growers "client". I see this in other agriculture related areas now. We might see it sooner than later.

This question is not intended to negate the real benefit of growing that Brigette points out. The Pumpkin Brotherhood is of greater value than the pumpkins or the seeds in my book too. But inevitably, someone *will* attempt to produce a "Hotty Seed" with the sole intention of profitting from it in the future. Mark my words. And so long as they don't steal Howard's intellectual property or infringe on his trademarks, there will be no recourse besides boycott.

Steve

11/5/2003 6:17:00 PM

Syracuse, NY

i think maybe a "take this seed under your wing, oh, Great Heavy Hitter" REQUEST to a Great Grower would be more likely accepted as ethical. PAYING a grower a fee
would be LIKE selling seeds, just under a different topic...
...and perhaps upside-down and in reverse, LOL....
IMAGINE the number of requests any one heavy hitter would get and have to contend with....Bill Bobier, for example.
or...me! LOL! but i like the idea of having it done under the auspices of an official growers' organization......

11/5/2003 6:43:48 PM

Long Island,New York

Boy this "ethical" subject is getting a bit too all-encompassing for me. Now "consignment growing" is unethical...having someone more capable or more environmentally tuned towards success for a reward is unethical? Geez...its gonna be a looooong winter and certainly a busy summer for the pumpkin police......G

11/5/2003 8:46:40 PM

Deer Park WA

I will go out on a limb here and volunteer my services to grow for free any 845, or 723 seed if a holder sends me one! LOL. Seriously though if I really really wanted one I would pay for it, the truth is I allready have way more choices than patch time to chose from.

11/5/2003 11:43:12 PM

Stouffville

Just because someone takes a so-called noname seed and grows a big one from it, doesn't make him or her a better grower. This grower may be more of a risk-taker or probably just has the benefit of a 723 or 846 as 'back-ups', if the unproven seed doesn't pan out. Most seeds nowadays with 935, 846, 900.5, 946.5 etc in whatever combination have at least a few real big ones in them I'm sure. However, seeds only seem to become hot if the first one or two grown produce something desirable, otherwise that seed is forgotten.

11/6/2003 10:53:30 AM

North Ga

Hey G? Since I grew my personal best from the 455 that was in your sock drawer, maybe I can send you back the ones I have left and you can store them in your "dirty" sock hamper for me! LOL!!

11/6/2003 3:17:49 PM

Long Island,New York

Sorry Pappy..The socks never quite make it to the hamper (so says the wife anyway...)

11/6/2003 4:53:59 PM

Usa

I received seeds from a very kind great grower and there were mainly 1 - 2 seeds of each that he sent me.
When I grow I will have to be extra careful. I will have to take care of the plant properly. So receiving that 1 seed gives me a chance to grow it. From there it is up to me if I succeed.
So it is more like he is encouraging me to work harder with growing those seeds.
I don't need the most popular seeds to grow a big one. I need the experience, care, and the proper growing environment. I believe all of the seeds have the 1000 lb growing potential.
So, I appreciate the challenge and the seeds.
If I had one of the seeds that are on the "most wanted list" I would just send it to an experienced proven grower and ask for a few seeds out of what he grows.
I'm not going to be one of the people that saves my seeds for selling. The seeds I have received are going into the ground.
Even all of my test plants were planted in someones yard if not in my yard.
Waste not want not.
I don't think the value and cost of seeds will be as expensive in days to come because anyone can sell seeds. But, are you really getting the seeds that they say they are selling???

11/7/2003 4:17:31 PM

Syracuse, NY

just to reiterate, i said a grower getting PAID to grow a seed to prove its worth and its potential didn't seem right to me.
and yes, if anyone says
"here, grow this 845 Bobier for me, Sir", by all means, do!
(sorry, or "Ma'am"!) 'pal

11/10/2003 6:34:48 PM