AG Genetics and Breeding
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Subject: Predicting seeds that become especially costly
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From
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Message
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Date Posted
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Doctor Pumpkin |
Ny
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It seems fairly easy to predict which new seeds will become the next most highly desired seed by large numbers of growers after watching things play out over the course of the past decade or so. First, there is a consistent pattern. The seeds that come from pumpkins at or near the top of the GPC or the seeds that grow heavy to chart pumpkins or seeds of reverse crosses of great pumpkins almost always seem to have a clear advantage. It's because traditionally they are more likely to get grown the most, which means better odds in getting a super star pumpkin with those seeds. That, in turn, will lead to a massive demand for those seeds in the future if a big one is grown.
For example, let's go back ten years to 2007 first. Bill Rodonis grew the #4 pumpkin in the GPC at 1566 pounds. He also had the reverse cross of that at 1161 pounds. It could be argued that the reverse cross of that 1566 highly charted seed really received a lot of additional attention after Quinn had a top 5 GPC showing after growing a 1161 in 2008. Consequently, more grew it in the future and the 1161 turned into an eventual all time great seed. Hmmm, ten years later there looks like a lot of parallels between the 800 McMullen and the 1161. More on that later. Virtually nobody was interested in the 1161 during the first year out. After Quinn's showing, it eventually became possibly the most grown seed ever.
In 2009, Christy Harp grew her 1725 pumpkin that finished at first place in the GPC. Eventually, that particular seed became one of the greatest for its time. A lot were grown and a lot were sold for very high prices, such as near $500 in auctions for years to come. A seed from that pumpkin eventually led to the first one ton pumpkin.
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2/12/2017 3:52:22 PM
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Doctor Pumpkin |
Ny
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In 2010, Chris Stevens grew a new world record. Unfortunately, due to a low seed count, it could not be as widely grown. Had there been more seeds out there one could only wonder what might have been. But, during that same year the 1495 Stelts grew at 25% heavy to chart. Growers flocked to that seed and it also became one of the most widely grown of all time, as well as very expensive for several years to come.
In 2011, the Bryson's grew a new world record. After the first year out its seeds didn't produce any pumpkins that demonstrated world record potential. It seems like interest faded in that seed after that. However, if just one of Jim's seeds made it big, it likely would have been a whole different ball game for those Bryson seeds in the future. Instead, during that same growing season, the 1789 estimated Wallace "Freak" seed, which would've been a top 5 seed in 2011 if it was official, became particularly hot and became widely grown very likely due to the unusual weight gains that were being put on while it was growing. It also grew a lot of heavy pumpkins during its first year out.
In 2012, it was the 2009 Wallace that hit the first one ton weight barrier. There was no doubt that it was going to be widely grown and that resulted in it becoming one of the most sought out seeds ever. The 2009 still sells for close to $500 in some auctions.
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2/12/2017 3:54:07 PM
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Doctor Pumpkin |
Ny
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The year of 2013 gave us a top two of the 2032 Mathison and 1985 Miller respectively. Both produced pumpkins over the one ton mark again. Both sold for around $300 the following winter after their first year out. Also in 2013 the 1625 Gantner arrived on the scene. It wasn't particularly overly heavy to chart, but it produced pumpkins that grew exceptionally heavy to chart. Once people picked up on that demand went way up. Even this year it is still going for several hundreds of dollars in auctions.
In 2014, it was the year of Beni Meier. He had the top three pumpkins in the GPC at 2323, 2102, and 2096. Two of the three had the 2328 Meier DMG genetics in them. Phil Hunt was on his way to a super sized pumpkin from a 2323 seed. If it had worked out for him that 2323 seed may have become extremely hot the following year. In fact, if it broke a new record, or came close, it likely would've been in huge demand. Instead the 2096 Meier became more highly regarded due to breaking the one ton barrier on a few occasions. It still sells for around $200 in auctions.
In 2015, Ron Wallace had a GPC 1st place 2230 pound pumpkin and Gene McMullen had a 3rd place 2145 pound pumpkin. Both became two of the most grown pumpkins the following year, with the 2145 showing arguably the greatest success from a first year out seed ever. Something also tells me that the 800 McMullen, the reverse cross of the 2145 might get a lot of chances this year too. With reverse cross genetics of the 2145, and a new Colorado state record grown from this seed, the stage is set for this one to get grown a lot this year.
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2/12/2017 3:55:46 PM
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Doctor Pumpkin |
Ny
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So, what do all of these cases have in common? They all are at or near the top of the GPC charts, or would have been if they were officially recognized pumpkins. Or, they had great potential to grow heavy to chart. Or, they were reverse crosses of great pumpkins. The heaviest weighing pumpkins year after year have been grown a lot and more often than not have had very large off-spring, which only increased their demand the next year.
It's pretty easy to conclude what the next great unproven seeds will be demand wise next year at this time. Just look at the top of the GPC charts and also look for any that are heavy to chart or reverse crosses of great sized pumpkins. As you can see from above, for most years there becomes a new super seed that will generate several hundreds in auctions due to first year out success stories based on the one of the three factors that I laid out.
Right now the 2624 Willemijns and its reverse cross the 2063 Willemijns are getting as much as any new and unproven seeds so far in the auctions. The Wallace's 2261 and 2307 DMG pumpkin seeds are right up their too. Chances are that one or more of those seeds will produce something large enough this summer to cause their values to sky rocket even higher by a year from now. Growers are paying a lot for them. Most growers typically will grow what they pay a lot for.
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2/12/2017 3:57:39 PM
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Doctor Pumpkin |
Ny
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That said, please don't sleep on or hesitate to take a chance on any of the other good ones out there. There are a lot to choose from. All it takes is one grower to grow something special from any of the others out there to all of a sudden to make those seeds hot too!
It's just that history is really on the side of those seeds that come especially from the very biggest pumpkins. It doesn't mean they have the best potential, just that they will be grown a lot increasing their odds over other seeds of getting a really big one. Secondly, those that are heaviest to chart or those that are reverse crosses of special sized pumpkins also get a closer look and are more likely to be grown. Essentially, those are the seeds most likely to grow to massively expensive heights in the future because they simply have way more chances to make it big.
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2/12/2017 3:58:40 PM
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don young |
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you missed pollinater of biggest pumpkin in 2007 2nd biggest in 07 had no seed but its pollinater went on to contribute to future
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2/12/2017 5:04:26 PM
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Doctor Pumpkin |
Ny
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It's actually a shame that the 2nd biggest in 07, which was grown by the all time great grower Don Young, didn't have much in the way of seeds. That pumpkin pretty much represented the best of what the 1068 Wallace seeds could do. It was a big and beautiful pumpkin that just missed a world record. I believe that it was also the biggest pumpkin ever grown off of a 1068 seed.
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2/12/2017 5:56:12 PM
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cojoe |
Colorado
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Yep dr. gene,quite a few promising 2145mcmullen crosses out there that arent gonna break ones budget that may be the next big producer-thats part of the fun of growing picking the next super seed :)
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2/12/2017 11:54:39 PM
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bnot |
Oak Grove, Mn
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1385.5 howell/Jolivette 2014 is a one of those seeds that flew under the radar the last two years. Probably could have grown it for the cost of a bubble. Finally someone gave the seed a chance. 1 for 1 in growing over 2100. This year the price has risen. Next year if it produces big the price will be even higher.
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2/13/2017 3:26:02 AM
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Porkchop |
Central NY
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Good read... Thanks for sharing...com on spring!!
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2/13/2017 5:47:20 AM
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big moon |
Bethlehem CT
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When I first came on this site back in 2,006, it seemed it was always the reverse cross of the biggest pumpkin that were favored by growers. Ex. 1385 Jutras,1161 Rodonis. After the 1725 Harp, growers began looking at the biggest and best from that year, or the freaks like Ron Wallaces 1789. I have a feeling that Ron's 2,307 dmg could be the seed that brings pumpkin weights to the next level. I also like the 2106 Schmidt. I hope someone gives that one a try. (you can see I am biased, I am hoping to see some big and orange.)
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2/13/2017 7:23:12 AM
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cojoe |
Colorado
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The 2032 Matheson did okay first generation but really started to shine 2nd generation-especially as a pollinator. So the 1385h/j and 2106 beard are both promising even if they are orange hahaha.Thank you pumpkin-fanatic website
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2/13/2017 11:13:10 AM
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spudder |
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The 1872 has big potential and is still selling reasonably cheap. The 2063 from it was weighed early on Sept.11 and who knows what 3 more weeks would have done. Does anybody know how much it was still growing?
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2/13/2017 2:20:52 PM
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spudder |
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Was the fastest growing plant in their patch and had huge vines and tap roots. That comes right from MathiasW .
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2/13/2017 2:27:10 PM
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gordon |
Utah
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I just wanted to list a bunch of great seeds/pumpkins from the past: 239 Dill 1978 493 Dill 1981 World Record 575 Dill 1988 616 Dill 1988 775 Thompson 1989 World Record 567.5 Mombert 1992 827 Holland 1992 World Record 884 Black 1993 World Record 697 Ciliberto 1994 990 Bax 1994 World Record 563 Geerts 1995 887 Orr 1995 825.5 Shymanski 1996 946.5 Geerts 1996 909.5 Lloyd 1996 1006 Greer 1996 1061 Zehr 1996 World Record 801.5 Stelts 1997 935 Lloyd 1997 940 Mombert 1998 865 Mettler 1998 968 Sproule 1998 1092 Burke 1998 World Record 723 Bobier 1999 810 Dill 1999 846 Calai 1999 712 Kuhn 2000 845 Bobier 2000 895.5 Hester 2000 Squash 1140 Stelts 2000 World Record 898 Knauss 2001 1260 Weir 2001 1262 Emmons 2001 World Record
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3/21/2017 5:00:49 PM
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Total Posts: 15 |
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